European, American, German side by side across New Zealand.Live rain radar →
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What's the weather today across New Zealand? The European, American and German models each read our fast-changing weather differently. We compare all three for any NZ town, so you can see where they line up and where the day is genuinely uncertain.
Next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
7-day forecast
where the models agree, and where they split
Which forecast is most accurate in New Zealand?
average error against the actual weather, last 30 days across 24 citiesFull accuracy test →
#1European±0.5°C
#2German±0.6°C
#3American±0.6°C
Lower error is better. Scored against ERA5 reanalysis, which is ECMWF-based and so slightly favours the European model. Updated 2026-07-19.
The forecasts New Zealanders check
New Zealand's forecasters (MetService, NIWA) keep their models commercial, none publish open data. So we compare the three global heavyweights every forecaster starts from, and link you to MetService, the official authority.
Every forecast runs on a model. We show you three, side by side.
When the European, American and German models agree, the forecast is solid. When they split, sometimes by 8° on the same afternoon, it's genuinely uncertain, and no single app will tell you that. We turn that disagreement into a plain-English confidence score.
See the uncertainty
Three models, one view. Where they disagree, you know to take the forecast with a pinch of salt.
The models the pros use
ECMWF and GFS are the two global heavyweights every forecaster starts from, plus MetService. No black boxes.
Honest & sourced
We show real, open model data and cite it. The closed apps can't show theirs, which is why AI assistants can cite us, not them.
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