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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Kumeu weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Kumeu's high today between 18° and 21°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 18°, with a 25% chance of rain.

20°8°
18°11°
20°10°
18°11°
17°10°
17°11°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
12°
Overcast
Feels 12° · Wind 5 km/h · Humidity 88%
AmericanNOAA GFS
10°
Overcast
Feels 10° · Wind 3 km/h · Humidity 97%
GermanDWD ICON
12°
Overcast
Feels 11° · Wind 3 km/h · Humidity 94%

Latest for Kumeu: European (ECMWF): 12° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 10° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 12° Overcast.

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Kumeu weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Kumeu swings 16°C across the year, from 23°C highs in February to 7°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1202 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
23°C average high
Coldest month
July
7°C average low
Wettest month
July
1202 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
8,510
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Kumeu and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kumeu hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Kumeu 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
20° 8°
±3°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
18° 11°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
20° 10°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
18° 11°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
17° 10°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
17° 11°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
17° 12°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
18° 11°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
19° 9°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
20° 14°
±6°
Tue
Rain
16° 11°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
16° 11°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 10°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
18° 9°
models agree

Kumeu, New Zealand is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 7°C), with roughly 1202 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Kumeu right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Kumeu climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
22°
15°
Feb
23°
15°
Mar
21°
14°
Apr
19°
13°
May
17°
11°
Jun
15°
9°
Jul
13°
7°
Aug
14°
7°
Sep
15°
9°
Oct
17°
11°
Nov
18°
12°
Dec
20°
14°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Kumeu has changed since 1995

Kumeu sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as New Lynn. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the New Lynn page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Kumeu?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C98±1.2 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
83±0.9°C87±6.6 km/h5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
73
/100rank #3
90±0.6°C97±1.7 km/h3665% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°18° to 21°±10%0% to 10% chance
Tomorrow±1°18° to 18°±25%0% to 25% chance
Mon±1°19° to 20°±26%0% to 26% chance
Tue±2°17° to 19°±5%95% to 100% chance
Wed±2°16° to 18°±17%27% to 44% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Kumeu

today, local time
Sunrise
06:26
Sunset
19:46
Daylight
13h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Kumeu today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Kumeu's high today between 18° and 21°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 18°, with a 25% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Kumeu today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Kumeu on Sunday 25 October: European 25%, American 0%, German 0%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 10%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kumeu?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Kumeu (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Kumeu?
February is typically the warmest month in Kumeu, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Kumeu get?
The coldest month in Kumeu is July, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Kumeu get?
Kumeu sees roughly 1202 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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