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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Waitakere weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 21° in Waitakere today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 21°, with a 89% chance of rain.

21°14°
21°15°
23°16°
24°16°
19°14°
20°13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±4°Fridaysplit ±3°Saturdaysplit ±4°Sundaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Light drizzle
Feels 18° · Wind 24 km/h · Humidity 78%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Overcast
Feels 18° · Wind 15 km/h · Humidity 70%
GermanDWD ICON
19°
Light showers
Feels 18° · Wind 20 km/h · Humidity 81%

Latest for Waitakere: European (ECMWF): 19° Light drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 19° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 19° Light showers.

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Waitakere weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Waitakere swings 14°C across the year, from 22°C highs in February to 8°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1361 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
22°C average high
Coldest month
July
8°C average low
Wettest month
July
1361 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
1,830
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Waitakere and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Waitakere hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Waitakere 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
21° 14°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
21° 15°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
23° 16°
±4°
Fri
Thunderstorm
24° 16°
±3°
Sat
Drizzle
19° 14°
±4°
Sun
Light drizzle
20° 13°
models agree
Mon
Showers
20° 13°
±5°
Tue
Light rain
23° 16°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
21° 14°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 15°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
20° 14°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
22° 15°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
20° 16°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
20° 15°
models agree

Waitakere, New Zealand is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 8°C), with roughly 1361 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Waitakere right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Waitakere climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
21°
16°
Feb
22°
16°
Mar
21°
15°
Apr
19°
14°
May
16°
11°
Jun
15°
10°
Jul
13°
8°
Aug
14°
8°
Sep
15°
9°
Oct
17°
11°
Nov
18°
12°
Dec
20°
14°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Waitakere has changed since 1995

Waitakere sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as New Lynn. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the New Lynn page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Waitakere?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C97±1.7 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
86
/100rank #2
93±0.4°C97±1.6 km/h7184% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
83
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C93±3.3 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°20° to 22°±87%3% to 90% chance
Tomorrow±3°19° to 22°±55%34% to 89% chance
Thu±4°22° to 26°±17%38% to 55% chance
Fri±3°23° to 26°±12%88% to 100% chance
Sat±4°17° to 21°±43%45% to 88% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Waitakere

today, local time
Sunrise
06:15
Sunset
19:56
Daylight
13h 41m

Common questions

What's the weather in Waitakere today?
Tuesday 3 November: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 21° in Waitakere today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 21°, with a 89% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Waitakere today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Waitakere on Wednesday 4 November: European 89%, American 34%, German 35%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Tuesday 3 November the highest chance of rain from any model is 90%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Waitakere?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Waitakere (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the German at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Waitakere?
February is typically the warmest month in Waitakere, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Waitakere get?
The coldest month in Waitakere is July, when overnight lows average about 8°C.
How much rain does Waitakere get?
Waitakere sees roughly 1361 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

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