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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°C

Hamilton weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 16° in Hamilton today. Tomorrow looks rain around 16°, with a 100% chance of rain.

16°
16°10°
16°
15°
14°
14°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°Fridaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Light drizzle
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 90%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Light drizzle
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 34%
GermanDWD ICON
16°
Fog
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 33%

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Hamilton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
16° 10°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
16°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Thu
Heavy drizzle
14°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
14°
±3°
Sun
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
16°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
16° 10°
±2°
Thu
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
14°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
13°
±4°

Hamilton, New Zealand. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Hamilton right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Hamilton's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Hamilton weather by month

what to expect in Hamilton through the year

Here is Hamilton's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Hamilton by season.

Jan
24°
16°
Warm
Wettest
Feb
23°
14°
Warm
Mar
21°
11°
Mild
Apr
19°
12°
Mild
May
16°
Mild
Jun
15°
Mild
Jul
14°
Cool
Aug
14°
Cool
Sep
16°
Mild
Oct
18°
Mild
Nov
20°
11°
Mild
Dec
23°
14°
Warm

What Hamilton's weather is like through the year

Hamilton runs from warm summers, with January highs near 24°C, to cold winters, when August lows sit around 5°C (a swing of about 19°C across the year). January is usually the wettest month, and Hamilton sees roughly 1417 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Hamilton

The most comfortable time to visit Hamilton is usually February, March, April and May, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest January rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Hamilton?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C96±1.8 km/t100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
90
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C94±3.1 km/t8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
86
/100rank #3
91±0.5°C94±2.8 km/t7687% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 237 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Hamilton, scoring 97/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the American at 90. See the full NZ accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree16° to 16°±57%33% to 90% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree16° to 16°±5%95% to 100% chance
Tue±1°16° to 16°±19%20% to 39% chance
Wed±1°15° to 16°±16%15% to 31% chance
Thu±3°13° to 15°±46%48% to 94% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Hamilton

today, local time
Sunrise
06:33
Sunset
18:01
Daylight
11h 28m

Common questions

What's the weather in Hamilton today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Hamilton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Hamilton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Hamilton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Hamilton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Hamilton (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Hamilton?
January is typically the warmest month in Hamilton, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Hamilton get?
The coldest month in Hamilton is August, when overnight lows average about 5°C.
How much rain does Hamilton get?
Hamilton sees roughly 1417 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Hamilton?
The most comfortable time to visit Hamilton is usually February, March, April and May, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest January rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Hamilton?
Rarely - Hamilton very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

Nearby

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