Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 2°C
Morrinsville weather
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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow
European, the American and the German model put Morrinsville's high today between 19° and 22°, a 2° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 19°, with a 29% chance of rain.
Morrinsville swings 18°C across the year, from 23°C highs in January to 5°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1243 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
January
23°C average high
Coldest month
July
5°C average low
Wettest month
July
1243 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
9,710
share this forecast
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Morrinsville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Morrinsville hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Morrinsville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
21°8°
±2°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
19°9°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
19°8°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
17°9°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
17°6°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
17°8°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
18°9°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
18°7°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
19°8°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
19°13°
±4°
Tue
Rain
18°11°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
18°11°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
20°8°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
20°8°
models agree
Morrinsville, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 5°C), with roughly 1243 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Morrinsville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
23°
15°
Feb
23°
15°
Mar
22°
12°
Apr
19°
12°
May
17°
9°
Jun
14°
7°
Jul
13°
5°
Aug
14°
5°
Sep
15°
7°
Oct
17°
8°
Nov
19°
10°
Dec
22°
13°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Morrinsville's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.5°C
Around Morrinsville, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004. 7 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2022.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
18 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004
Average wind
−6%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.1°C
−0
+0%
1996
−0.5°C
−12
+5%
1997
−0.7°C
−15
+3%
1998
+0.8°C
+16
+8%
1999
+0.3°C
+4
−5%
2000
+0.1°C
−1
+3%
2001
+0.2°C
−14
+0%
2002
−0.2°C
−22
+10%
2003
±0.0°C
−12
+0%
2004
−0.8°C
−11
+8%
2005
+0.2°C
−12
−5%
2006
−0.6°C
−12
+3%
2007
±0.0°C
−7
+0%
2008
±0.0°C
+10
+3%
2009
−0.6°C
+2
+0%
2010
+0.1°C
+9
−2%
2011
+0.1°C
+4
+0%
2012
−0.6°C
−22
+0%
2013
+0.2°C
+6
−5%
2014
−0.3°C
−10
+3%
2015
−0.2°C
+8
−2%
2016
+0.5°C
+12
+0%
2017
+0.1°C
−2
−5%
2018
+0.4°C
+7
−8%
2019
+0.5°C
+38
−2%
2020
+0.3°C
+21
−2%
2021
+0.5°C
+7
−5%
2022
+1.0°C
+17
−5%
2023
+0.3°C
−14
+5%
2024
+0.2°C
+11
−5%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Morrinsville, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Morrinsville?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
G
German ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C
96±1.9 km/h
8994% hit
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
European
88
/100rank #2
93±0.4°C
96±1.8 km/h
7687% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
85
/100rank #3
86±0.8°C
95±2.4 km/h
7687% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±2°19° to 22°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow
±2°18° to 20°
±29%0% to 29% chance
Mon
±2°18° to 20°
±43%0% to 43% chance
Tue
±2°16° to 18°
±5%93% to 98% chance
Wed
±1°17° to 18°
±13%22% to 35% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Morrinsville
today, local time
Sunrise
06:21
Sunset
19:43
Daylight
13h 22m
Common questions
What's the weather in Morrinsville today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Morrinsville's high today between 19° and 22°, a 2° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 19°, with a 29% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Morrinsville today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Morrinsville on Sunday 25 October: European 29%, American 0%, German 3%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Morrinsville?
Over the last 30 days, the German model has been the most accurate for Morrinsville (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the European at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Morrinsville?
January is typically the warmest month in Morrinsville, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Morrinsville get?
The coldest month in Morrinsville is July, when overnight lows average about 5°C.
How much rain does Morrinsville get?
Morrinsville sees roughly 1243 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
Is Morrinsville getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Morrinsville, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004.
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