Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 3°C
Blenheim weather
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Partly cloudy,much the same tomorrow
European, the American and the German model put Blenheim's high today between 24° and 27°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: clear, around 23°, with a 0% chance of rain.
Blenheim swings 21°C across the year, from 24°C highs in February to 3°C lows in June, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 889 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
February
24°C average high
Coldest month
June
3°C average low
Wettest month
July
889 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
30,000
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The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Blenheim and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Blenheim hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Blenheim 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
25°11°
±3°
Tomorrow
Clear
23°10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
21°12°
±4°
Tue
Light rain
18°10°
±3°
Wed
Mostly clear
19°7°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
20°9°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
18°8°
±3°
Sat
Partly cloudy
19°7°
±5°
Sun
Cloudy
19°9°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
17°9°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
14°9°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
16°9°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
19°8°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
18°8°
models agree
Blenheim, New Zealand. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Blenheim right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Blenheim's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.
what to expect in Blenheim through the year, 1991-2020 averages
Here is Blenheim's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Blenheim by season.
Jan
23°
13°
Warm
Feb
24°
13°
Warm
Mar
22°
11°
Warm
Apr
17°
8°
Mild
May
16°
6°
Mild
Jun
11°
3°
Cool
Jul
12°
3°
Cool
Wettest
Aug
14°
4°
Cool
Sep
15°
5°
Mild
Oct
18°
7°
Mild
Nov
20°
10°
Mild
Dec
22°
12°
Warm
What Blenheim's weather is like through the year
Blenheim runs from warm summers, with February highs near 24°C, to cold winters, when June lows sit around 3°C (a swing of about 21°C across the year). July is usually the wettest month, and Blenheim sees roughly 889 mm of precipitation annually.
Best time to visit Blenheim
The most comfortable time to visit Blenheim is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.
How Blenheim's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.3°C
Around Blenheim, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
1 more day a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
3 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−2%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.5°C
−7
+6
−1%
1996
−0.7°C
−11
+5
−1%
1997
−0.5°C
−7
+5
−1%
1998
+0.6°C
+18
−2
+2%
1999
+0.5°C
+7
+1
−1%
2000
+0.1°C
+2
−3
+2%
2001
+0.4°C
+7
+2
−4%
2002
−0.1°C
−9
−3
+7%
2003
±0.0°C
−4
−1
+4%
2004
−0.6°C
−1
+2
+4%
2005
+0.4°C
+4
+0
−4%
2006
−0.4°C
−2
+0
+7%
2007
±0.0°C
+4
−3
−1%
2008
±0.0°C
+5
+6
−1%
2009
−0.6°C
+5
+2
−1%
2010
+0.1°C
+3
−2
−1%
2011
−0.3°C
−2
+7
−1%
2012
−0.6°C
−10
−3
−1%
2013
+0.4°C
+8
−4
+2%
2014
−0.1°C
−7
+2
+4%
2015
−0.2°C
+8
+5
−1%
2016
+0.3°C
+4
−2
+2%
2017
+0.1°C
−7
+0
−4%
2018
+0.3°C
+1
−7
−4%
2019
+0.5°C
+16
−4
+2%
2020
+0.2°C
+8
−4
+2%
2021
+0.3°C
−3
−4
+2%
2022
+0.3°C
−7
+1
−1%
2023
+0.3°C
−8
−4
−1%
2024
+0.2°C
−0
+0
−4%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Blenheim, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Blenheim?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
85
/100rank #1
88±0.6°C
94±2.8 km/h
7687% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
84
/100rank #2
75±1.4°C
92±4.0 km/h
8994% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
81
/100rank #3
80±1.1°C
91±4.5 km/h
7687% hit
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Blenheim, scoring 85/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the American at 84. See the full NZ accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote counts
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±3°24° to 27°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow
±1°23° to 23°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon
±4°19° to 24°
±19%0% to 19% chance
Tue
±3°16° to 19°
±55%45% to 100% chance
Wed
±1°19° to 20°
±9%6% to 15% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Blenheim
today, local time
Sunrise
06:21
Sunset
19:55
Daylight
13h 34m
Common questions
What's the weather in Blenheim today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Blenheim's high today between 24° and 27°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: clear, around 23°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Blenheim today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Blenheim on Sunday 25 October: no model gives more than 0% (European 0%, American 0%, German 0%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Blenheim?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Blenheim (CheckWeather Score 85/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Blenheim?
February is typically the warmest month in Blenheim, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Blenheim get?
The coldest month in Blenheim is June, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Blenheim get?
Blenheim sees roughly 889 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Blenheim?
The most comfortable time to visit Blenheim is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Blenheim?
Rarely - Blenheim very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.
Is Blenheim getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Blenheim, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
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