Nelson weather
Loading live data…Partly cloudy,much the same tomorrow
European, the American and the German model put Nelson's high today between 19° and 22°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 20°, with a 0% chance of rain.
Latest for Nelson: European (ECMWF): 13° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 12° Clear · German (DWD ICON): 15° Clear.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Nelson weather in numbers
from 30 years of measured normalsNelson swings 17°C across the year, from 22°C highs in February to 5°C lows in July, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1170 mm of precipitation.
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Nelson and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Nelson hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Nelson 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitNelson, New Zealand. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Nelson right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Nelson's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.
Nelson weather by month
what to expect in Nelson through the year, 1991-2020 averagesHere is Nelson's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Nelson by season.
What Nelson's weather is like through the year
Nelson runs from warm summers, with February highs near 22°C, to cold winters, when July lows sit around 5°C (a swing of about 17°C across the year). October is usually the wettest month, and Nelson sees roughly 1170 mm of precipitation annually.
Best time to visit Nelson
The most comfortable time to visit Nelson is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest October rain is behind you.
How Nelson's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Nelson, 2015-2024 averaged 0.4°C warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 1999.
Days above 25°C
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Days >25°C vs avg | Frost nights vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | −0.7°C | −4 | +10 | +0% |
| 1996 | −0.8°C | −10 | +12 | −4% |
| 1997 | −0.6°C | −4 | +11 | +4% |
| 1998 | +0.5°C | +11 | −10 | +4% |
| 1999 | +0.6°C | +11 | −1 | −4% |
| 2000 | +0.1°C | +1 | −9 | +0% |
| 2001 | +0.3°C | +5 | +11 | −4% |
| 2002 | −0.2°C | −6 | −5 | +8% |
| 2003 | −0.1°C | −4 | −5 | +0% |
| 2004 | −0.9°C | −3 | +11 | +8% |
| 2005 | +0.3°C | −0 | −6 | −4% |
| 2006 | −0.7°C | −5 | +9 | +8% |
| 2007 | −0.1°C | −6 | +11 | +0% |
| 2008 | ±0.0°C | −0 | +6 | −4% |
| 2009 | −0.6°C | +5 | +16 | +0% |
| 2010 | +0.1°C | +1 | −2 | +0% |
| 2011 | −0.2°C | −0 | +1 | +0% |
| 2012 | −0.6°C | −7 | −1 | +0% |
| 2013 | +0.5°C | +14 | −4 | +0% |
| 2014 | −0.2°C | −5 | +2 | +4% |
| 2015 | −0.1°C | +13 | +13 | −4% |
| 2016 | +0.2°C | +2 | −5 | +0% |
| 2017 | +0.1°C | −4 | −4 | −4% |
| 2018 | +0.2°C | −0 | −13 | −4% |
| 2019 | +0.5°C | +14 | −11 | +4% |
| 2020 | +0.2°C | +4 | −11 | +0% |
| 2021 | +0.3°C | −0 | −4 | +0% |
| 2022 | +0.4°C | −6 | −4 | −8% |
| 2023 | +0.4°C | −6 | −8 | +0% |
| 2024 | +0.2°C | +2 | −0 | −4% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Nelson, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Nelson?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
Bottom line: over the last 30 days the American model has been the most accurate forecast for Nelson, scoring 91/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the German at 88. See the full NZ accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.