Nelson weather
Loading live data…Showers,rain likely tomorrow
European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 14° in Nelson today. Tomorrow looks light rain around 14°, with a 100% chance of rain.
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Nelson and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Next 14 hours
consensus of the three models14-day forecast
where the models agree, and where they splitNelson, New Zealand. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Nelson right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Nelson's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.
Nelson weather by month
what to expect in Nelson through the yearHere is Nelson's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Nelson by season.
What Nelson's weather is like through the year
Nelson runs from warm summers, with January highs near 22°C, to cool winters, when July lows sit around 6°C (a swing of about 16°C across the year). October is usually the wettest month, and Nelson sees roughly 1318 mm of precipitation annually.
Best time to visit Nelson
The most comfortable time to visit Nelson is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest October rain is behind you.
Which forecast is most accurate in Nelson?
CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 237 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Nelson, scoring 88/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the American at 86. See the full NZ accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.