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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Onerahi weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 22° in Onerahi today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 21°, with a 12% chance of rain.

22°9°
21°9°
22°8°
21°13°
19°10°
19°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±4°Mondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
13°
Partly cloudy
Feels 12° · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 92%
AmericanNOAA GFS
10°
Overcast
Feels 10° · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 97%
GermanDWD ICON
14°
Overcast
Feels 13° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 84%

Latest for Onerahi: European (ECMWF): 13° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 10° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 14° Overcast.

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Onerahi weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Onerahi swings 16°C across the year, from 23°C highs in February to 7°C lows in August, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1216 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
23°C average high
Coldest month
August
7°C average low
Wettest month
July
1216 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
6,580
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Onerahi and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Onerahi hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Onerahi 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
22° 9°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
21° 9°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
22° 8°
±3°
Tue
Drizzle
21° 13°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
19° 10°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 8°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
18° 11°
±4°
Sat
Cloudy
20° 9°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
20° 11°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
22° 15°
±2°
Tue
Light rain
19° 12°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 11°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
20° 11°
±4°
Fri
Drizzle
20° 9°
models agree

Onerahi, New Zealand is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 7°C), with roughly 1216 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Onerahi right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Onerahi climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
22°
15°
Feb
23°
15°
Mar
23°
14°
Apr
19°
12°
May
17°
11°
Jun
16°
9°
Jul
15°
8°
Aug
15°
7°
Sep
17°
10°
Oct
18°
11°
Nov
20°
11°
Dec
22°
14°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Onerahi's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.5°C

Around Onerahi, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004. 7 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 1998.

1995: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average1996: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average1997: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average1998: +1.0°C vs the 30-year average1999: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2001: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2002: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2003: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2004: −0.9°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2006: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2007: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2008: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2009: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2010: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2011: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2013: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2014: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2016: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2019: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2020: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2021: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2022: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average2023: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 25°C

8 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −8 vs the 30-year average1996: −2 vs the 30-year average1997: −2 vs the 30-year average1998: +27 vs the 30-year average1999: −2 vs the 30-year average2000: −7 vs the 30-year average2001: −5 vs the 30-year average2002: −10 vs the 30-year average2003: −12 vs the 30-year average2004: −2 vs the 30-year average2005: −5 vs the 30-year average2006: −7 vs the 30-year average2007: −10 vs the 30-year average2008: −4 vs the 30-year average2009: +4 vs the 30-year average2010: +15 vs the 30-year average2011: +5 vs the 30-year average2012: −13 vs the 30-year average2013: −3 vs the 30-year average2014: −11 vs the 30-year average2015: −0 vs the 30-year average2016: +16 vs the 30-year average2017: +3 vs the 30-year average2018: +10 vs the 30-year average2019: +14 vs the 30-year average2020: +19 vs the 30-year average2021: −5 vs the 30-year average2022: +3 vs the 30-year average2023: −11 vs the 30-year average2024: +8 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−7%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004

1995: +1% vs the 30-year average1996: +8% vs the 30-year average1997: +1% vs the 30-year average1998: +4% vs the 30-year average1999: −1% vs the 30-year average2000: +4% vs the 30-year average2001: +4% vs the 30-year average2002: +10% vs the 30-year average2003: +1% vs the 30-year average2004: +5% vs the 30-year average2005: −4% vs the 30-year average2006: −1% vs the 30-year average2007: −1% vs the 30-year average2008: +5% vs the 30-year average2009: +1% vs the 30-year average2010: −1% vs the 30-year average2011: +2% vs the 30-year average2012: +2% vs the 30-year average2013: −6% vs the 30-year average2014: +2% vs the 30-year average2015: −6% vs the 30-year average2016: −2% vs the 30-year average2017: −6% vs the 30-year average2018: −6% vs the 30-year average2019: −2% vs the 30-year average2020: −4% vs the 30-year average2021: −6% vs the 30-year average2022: −4% vs the 30-year average2023: +4% vs the 30-year average2024: −6% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >25°C vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.3°C−8+1%
1996−0.4°C−2+8%
1997−0.7°C−2+1%
1998+1.0°C+27+4%
1999+0.2°C−2−1%
2000−0.1°C−7+4%
2001+0.2°C−5+4%
2002−0.3°C−10+10%
2003−0.3°C−12+1%
2004−0.9°C−2+5%
2005+0.3°C−5−4%
2006−0.6°C−7−1%
2007−0.1°C−10−1%
2008±0.0°C−4+5%
2009−0.4°C+4+1%
2010+0.1°C+15−1%
2011−0.1°C+5+2%
2012−0.5°C−13+2%
2013+0.1°C−3−6%
2014−0.3°C−11+2%
2015−0.1°C−0−6%
2016+0.6°C+16−2%
2017+0.2°C+3−6%
2018+0.4°C+10−6%
2019+0.4°C+14−2%
2020+0.3°C+19−4%
2021+0.3°C−5−6%
2022+0.7°C+3−4%
2023−0.1°C−11+4%
2024+0.3°C+8−6%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Onerahi, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Onerahi?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
97±0.2°C98±1.0 km/h7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
74±1.4°C85±7.7 km/h6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
69
/100rank #3
76±1.3°C95±2.5 km/h4268% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°21° to 23°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tomorrow±4°18° to 22°±12%0% to 12% chance
Mon±3°20° to 23°±6%0% to 6% chance
Tue±3°19° to 22°±9%85% to 94% chance
Wed±3°18° to 20°±41%12% to 53% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Onerahi

today, local time
Sunrise
06:29
Sunset
19:46
Daylight
13h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Onerahi today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 22° in Onerahi today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 21°, with a 12% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Onerahi today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Onerahi on Sunday 25 October: no model gives more than 12% (European 12%, American 0%, German 3%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 2%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Onerahi?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Onerahi (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Onerahi?
February is typically the warmest month in Onerahi, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Onerahi get?
The coldest month in Onerahi is August, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Onerahi get?
Onerahi sees roughly 1216 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
Is Onerahi getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Onerahi, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004.

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