European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 21° in Kerikeri today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 21°, with a 59% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.
Kerikeri swings 15°C across the year, from 23°C highs in February to 8°C lows in August, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1528 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
February
23°C average high
Coldest month
August
8°C average low
Wettest month
July
1528 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
8,380
share this forecast
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Kerikeri and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kerikeri hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Kerikeri 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
21°10°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
21°9°
±5°
Mon
Light drizzle
21°9°
±3°
Tue
Drizzle
19°14°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
20°9°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
19°8°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
19°10°
±5°
Sat
Cloudy
20°8°
±4°
Sun
Light drizzle
18°11°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
19°15°
±4°
Tue
Light rain
20°13°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
19°12°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
22°11°
±6°
Fri
Light drizzle
20°10°
±3°
Kerikeri, New Zealand is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 8°C), with roughly 1528 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Kerikeri right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
22°
16°
Feb
23°
16°
Mar
23°
15°
Apr
20°
14°
May
18°
12°
Jun
16°
10°
Jul
15°
10°
Aug
15°
8°
Sep
17°
10°
Oct
18°
11°
Nov
20°
12°
Dec
21°
14°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Kerikeri's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.3°C
Around Kerikeri, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
3 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−7%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.2°C
−5
−0%
1996
−0.2°C
+0
+9%
1997
−0.5°C
−4
−0%
1998
+1.0°C
+17
+3%
1999
+0.2°C
+6
−0%
2000
−0.2°C
+0
+3%
2001
+0.1°C
−1
+4%
2002
−0.3°C
−7
+7%
2003
−0.2°C
−7
+3%
2004
−0.7°C
−3
+4%
2005
+0.2°C
−4
−2%
2006
−0.6°C
−5
−2%
2007
−0.1°C
−7
−0%
2008
−0.2°C
−5
+6%
2009
−0.4°C
−1
+3%
2010
−0.1°C
+2
−0%
2011
−0.1°C
+3
+3%
2012
−0.6°C
−6
+6%
2013
−0.2°C
−5
−2%
2014
−0.3°C
−6
−0%
2015
−0.2°C
+1
−8%
2016
+0.5°C
+6
−3%
2017
+0.1°C
−1
−5%
2018
+0.2°C
+3
−5%
2019
+0.4°C
+17
−3%
2020
+0.2°C
+15
−7%
2021
+0.1°C
−4
−3%
2022
+0.6°C
+2
−0%
2023
−0.1°C
−7
+3%
2024
+0.1°C
−1
−8%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Kerikeri, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Kerikeri?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
97±0.1°C
96±1.8 km/h
8290% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
78
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C
96±2.2 km/h
5877% hit
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American
70
/100rank #3
72±1.6°C
82±8.8 km/h
5877% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±2°20° to 22°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow
±5°18° to 23°
±59%0% to 59% chance
Mon
±3°19° to 22°
±17%3% to 20% chance
Tue
±1°18° to 19°
±10%90% to 100% chance
Wed
±3°19° to 22°
±48%16% to 64% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Kerikeri
today, local time
Sunrise
06:30
Sunset
19:46
Daylight
13h 16m
Common questions
What's the weather in Kerikeri today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 21° in Kerikeri today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 21°, with a 59% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Kerikeri today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Kerikeri on Sunday 25 October: European 59%, American 0%, German 0%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kerikeri?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Kerikeri (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the German at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Kerikeri?
February is typically the warmest month in Kerikeri, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Kerikeri get?
The coldest month in Kerikeri is August, when overnight lows average about 8°C.
How much rain does Kerikeri get?
Kerikeri sees roughly 1528 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
Is Kerikeri getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Kerikeri, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
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