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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Whakapapa weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 16° in Whakapapa today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 18°, with a 58% chance of rain.

16°10°
18°10°
20°11°
19°13°
17°11°
16°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±2°Thursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±3°Saturdaysplit ±4°Sundaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Overcast
Feels 15° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 76%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Overcast
Feels 17° · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 66%
GermanDWD ICON
17°
Overcast
Feels 16° · Wind 7 km/h · Humidity 62%

Latest for Whakapapa: European (ECMWF): 15° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 18° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 17° Overcast.

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Whakapapa weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Whakapapa swings 15°C across the year, from 17°C highs in January to 2°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1504 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
17°C average high
Coldest month
July
2°C average low
Wettest month
July
1504 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
2 months
January and February

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Whakapapa and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Whakapapa hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Whakapapa 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
18° 10°
±2°
Thu
Light drizzle
20° 11°
models agree
Fri
Light rain
19° 13°
±3°
Sat
Drizzle
17° 11°
±4°
Sun
Heavy drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
17° 8°
±3°
Tue
Light rain
18° 9°
±4°
Wed
Light rain
18° 11°
±4°
Thu
Rain
17° 10°
±6°
Fri
Rain
14° 10°
±3°
Sat
Drizzle
18° 9°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
15° 11°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
15° 11°
±5°

Whakapapa, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 17°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1504 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Whakapapa right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Whakapapa climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
17°
11°
Feb
17°
10°
Mar
15°
9°
Apr
13°
8°
May
11°
6°
Jun
8°
4°
Jul
7°
2°
Aug
8°
3°
Sep
9°
4°
Oct
12°
5°
Nov
13°
7°
Dec
15°
9°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Whakapapa has changed since 1995

Whakapapa sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Masterton. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Masterton page.

Which forecast is most accurate in New Zealand?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
86±0.8°C95±2.7 km/h8592% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #2
78±1.2°C91±4.6 km/h7888% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
81
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C94±3.1 km/h6983% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°15° to 17°±82%16% to 98% chance
Tomorrow±2°17° to 19°±20%38% to 58% chance
Thu±2°19° to 21°±59%20% to 79% chance
Fri±3°17° to 20°±17%83% to 100% chance
Sat±4°15° to 19°±22%74% to 96% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Whakapapa

today, local time
Sunrise
06:03
Sunset
19:59
Daylight
13h 56m

Common questions

What's the weather in Whakapapa today?
Tuesday 3 November: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 16° in Whakapapa today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 18°, with a 58% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Whakapapa today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Whakapapa on Wednesday 4 November: European 53%, American 58%, German 38%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Tuesday 3 November the highest chance of rain from any model is 98%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Whakapapa?
No single model is always right. European, American, German each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Whakapapa forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested NZ accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Whakapapa?
January is typically the warmest month in Whakapapa, with average highs around 17°C.
How cold does Whakapapa get?
The coldest month in Whakapapa is July, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Whakapapa get?
Whakapapa sees roughly 1504 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

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