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CheckWeather NZWaikanae
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Waikanae weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 14° in Waikanae today. Tomorrow looks rain around 14°, with a 100% chance of rain.

14°12°
14°
12°
13°
11°
13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±2°Thursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±4°
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Rain
Today 14°·Low 12°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
14°
Showers
Today 14°·Low 13°·Rain 100%
GermanDWD ICON
15°
Showers
Today 15°·Low 13°·Rain 100%

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Waikanae and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
14° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
14°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
12°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
13°
±2°
Thu
Light rain
11°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
13°
±4°
Sat
Light drizzle
13°
±4°
Sun
Mostly clear
12°
±5°
Mon
Partly cloudy
14°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
14° 12°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
13°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
12°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
12°
±3°
Sat
Drizzle
13°
models agree

Waikanae, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 7°C), with roughly 1688 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Waikanae right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Waikanae climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
21°
15°
Feb
20°
15°
Mar
18°
12°
Apr
17°
12°
May
15°
10°
Jun
14°
Jul
12°
Aug
12°
Sep
14°
Oct
15°
10°
Nov
16°
11°
Dec
19°
14°

Which forecast is most accurate in Waikanae?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
90±0.6°C93±3.5 km/t7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
80
/100rank #2
94±0.4°C89±5.3 km/t5877% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
79
/100rank #3
83±0.9°C93±3.4 km/t6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 237 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°14° to 15°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°14° to 14°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tue±3°11° to 13°±10%6% to 16% chance
Wed±2°12° to 14°±40%0% to 40% chance
Thu±2°10° to 12°±19%73% to 92% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Waikanae

today, local time
Sunrise
06:36
Sunset
18:00
Daylight
11h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Waikanae today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Waikanae today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Waikanae today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Waikanae and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Waikanae?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Waikanae (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the German at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Waikanae?
January is typically the warmest month in Waikanae, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Waikanae get?
The coldest month in Waikanae is July, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Waikanae get?
Waikanae sees roughly 1688 mm of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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