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Forecast confidence: Low · models disagree by 5°C

Rosedale weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Rosedale's high today between 19° and 24°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 22°, with a 40% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.

21°9°
22°15°
22°9°
12°6°
16°5°
11°6°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±4°Mondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Partly cloudy
Feels 12° · Wind 29 km/h · Humidity 64%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Overcast
Feels 14° · Wind 14 km/h · Humidity 56%
GermanDWD ICON
14°
Partly cloudy
Feels 11° · Wind 18 km/h · Humidity 70%

Latest for Rosedale: European (ECMWF): 16° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 16° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 14° Partly cloudy.

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Rosedale weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Rosedale swings 17°C across the year, from 19°C highs in January to 2°C lows in June, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1199 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
19°C average high
Coldest month
June
2°C average low
Wettest month
January
1199 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
3 months
February, March and December
Residents
7,620
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Rosedale and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Rosedale hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Rosedale 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
21° 9°
±5°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
22° 15°
±4°
Mon
Rain
22° 9°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
12° 6°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
16° 5°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
11° 6°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
12° 5°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
18° 7°
models agree
Sun
Rain
20° 8°
models agree
Mon
Rain
14° 5°
±4°
Tue
Light drizzle
14° 3°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
17° 5°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
18° 7°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
16° 9°
±8°

Rosedale, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 19°C) and coldest in Jun (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1199 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Rosedale right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Rosedale climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
19°
10°
Feb
17°
9°
Mar
16°
9°
Apr
14°
7°
May
12°
6°
Jun
9°
2°
Jul
9°
2°
Aug
11°
4°
Sep
13°
5°
Oct
14°
6°
Nov
15°
7°
Dec
17°
9°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Rosedale has changed since 1995

Rosedale sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Invercargill. That square ran 0.6°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Invercargill page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Rosedale?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C89±5.3 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
87
/100rank #2
88±0.7°C92±4.0 km/h8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
75
/100rank #3
78±1.2°C68±16.1 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°19° to 24°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±4°20° to 24°±27%13% to 40% chance
Mon±3°21° to 24°±5%95% to 100% chance
Tue±1°11° to 12°±27%56% to 83% chance
Wed±2°15° to 17°±26%66% to 92% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Rosedale

today, local time
Sunrise
06:36
Sunset
20:26
Daylight
13h 50m

Common questions

What's the weather in Rosedale today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Rosedale's high today between 19° and 24°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 22°, with a 40% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Rosedale today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Rosedale on Sunday 25 October: European 29%, American 13%, German 40%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Rosedale?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Rosedale (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the German at 87. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Rosedale?
January is typically the warmest month in Rosedale, with average highs around 19°C.
How cold does Rosedale get?
The coldest month in Rosedale is June, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Rosedale get?
Rosedale sees roughly 1199 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

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