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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Mosgiel weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 23° in Mosgiel today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 23°, with a 12% chance of rain.

23°10°
23°13°
24°10°
12°6°
18°6°
14°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±2°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Mainly clear
Feels 11° · Wind 22 km/h · Humidity 61%
AmericanNOAA GFS
14°
Clear
Feels 11° · Wind 12 km/h · Humidity 54%
GermanDWD ICON
15°
Partly cloudy
Feels 12° · Wind 11 km/h · Humidity 54%

Latest for Mosgiel: European (ECMWF): 15° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 14° Clear · German (DWD ICON): 15° Partly cloudy.

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Mosgiel weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Mosgiel swings 19°C across the year, from 20°C highs in January to 1°C lows in August, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 810 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
20°C average high
Coldest month
August
1°C average low
Wettest month
December
810 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and November
Residents
15,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Mosgiel and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Mosgiel hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Mosgiel 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
23° 10°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
23° 13°
models agree
Mon
Rain
24° 10°
±2°
Tue
Light drizzle
12° 6°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 6°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
14° 8°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
14° 6°
±3°
Sat
Light drizzle
19° 7°
±3°
Sun
Light drizzle
19° 9°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
14° 4°
±7°
Tue
Light drizzle
14° 2°
±2°
Wed
Cloudy
18° 7°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 7°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
17° 9°
±8°

Mosgiel, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 1°C), with roughly 810 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Mosgiel right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Mosgiel climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
20°
11°
Feb
20°
10°
Mar
18°
9°
Apr
15°
7°
May
13°
5°
Jun
10°
3°
Jul
9°
3°
Aug
11°
1°
Sep
13°
4°
Oct
15°
6°
Nov
16°
7°
Dec
18°
9°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Mosgiel has changed since 1995

Mosgiel sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Dunedin. That square ran 0.6°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Dunedin page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Mosgiel?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C95±2.7 km/h7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
85
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C91±4.7 km/h8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
72
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C91±4.6 km/h4771% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°22° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°22° to 24°±12%0% to 12% chance
Mon±2°23° to 25°±35%65% to 100% chance
Tue±2°12° to 13°±21%69% to 90% chance
Wed±2°17° to 19°±47%15% to 62% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mosgiel

today, local time
Sunrise
06:29
Sunset
20:17
Daylight
13h 48m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mosgiel today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 23° in Mosgiel today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 23°, with a 12% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Mosgiel today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Mosgiel on Sunday 25 October: no model gives more than 12% (European 12%, American 0%, German 3%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mosgiel?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Mosgiel (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the American at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mosgiel?
January is typically the warmest month in Mosgiel, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Mosgiel get?
The coldest month in Mosgiel is August, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Mosgiel get?
Mosgiel sees roughly 810 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

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