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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

North East Valley weather

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Mostly clear,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 22° in North East Valley today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 23°, with a 31% chance of rain.

22°11°
23°13°
24°10°
12°6°
18°6°
13°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±2°Tuesdaysplit ±2°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Mainly clear
Feels 11° · Wind 17 km/h · Humidity 63%
AmericanNOAA GFS
14°
Clear
Feels 11° · Wind 12 km/h · Humidity 56%
GermanDWD ICON
15°
Clear
Feels 12° · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 52%

Latest for North East Valley: European (ECMWF): 14° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 14° Clear · German (DWD ICON): 15° Clear.

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North East Valley weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

North East Valley swings 14°C across the year, from 17°C highs in January to 3°C lows in August, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 876 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
17°C average high
Coldest month
August
3°C average low
Wettest month
December
876 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
3 months
January, February and March
Residents
9,830
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around North East Valley and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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North East Valley hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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North East Valley 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
22° 11°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
23° 13°
models agree
Mon
Rain
24° 10°
±2°
Tue
Showers
12° 6°
±2°
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 6°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
13° 8°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
14° 6°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
18° 8°
±5°
Sun
Light drizzle
19° 9°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
14° 4°
±8°
Tue
Cloudy
12° 3°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
15° 7°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
16° 7°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
16° 9°
±8°

North East Valley, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 17°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 3°C), with roughly 876 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for North East Valley right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

North East Valley climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
17°
11°
Feb
17°
11°
Mar
16°
10°
Apr
13°
8°
May
12°
7°
Jun
9°
5°
Jul
9°
4°
Aug
10°
3°
Sep
11°
5°
Oct
13°
7°
Nov
14°
8°
Dec
15°
10°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around North East Valley has changed since 1995

North East Valley sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Dunedin. That square ran 0.6°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Dunedin page.

Which forecast is most accurate in North East Valley?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
84
/100rank #1
80±1.1°C84±7.8 km/h8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
83
/100rank #2
82±1.0°C93±3.7 km/h7687% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
European logo
European
74
/100rank #3
65±1.9°C84±7.9 km/h7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°21° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°22° to 23°±31%0% to 31% chance
Mon±2°23° to 25°±38%62% to 100% chance
Tue±2°11° to 13°±26%65% to 91% chance
Wed±2°17° to 19°±38%21% to 59% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in North East Valley

today, local time
Sunrise
06:28
Sunset
20:16
Daylight
13h 48m

Common questions

What's the weather in North East Valley today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 22° in North East Valley today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 23°, with a 31% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in North East Valley today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in North East Valley on Sunday 25 October: European 31%, American 0%, German 10%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for North East Valley?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for North East Valley (CheckWeather Score 84/100), ahead of the German at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in North East Valley?
January is typically the warmest month in North East Valley, with average highs around 17°C.
How cold does North East Valley get?
The coldest month in North East Valley is August, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does North East Valley get?
North East Valley sees roughly 876 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

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