Christmas Day Weather in Australia: What to Expect, Capital by Capital
Bureau of Meteorology December averages and Christmas Day records for all eight capitals, the real odds of rain or a scorcher, and when the Christmas forecast becomes worth trusting.
Christmas Day in Australia is usually warm to hot in the mainland capitals and mild in Hobart. On Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) December averages, daytime highs run from 21.0°C in Hobart to 33.0°C in Darwin, with Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra between 27.6°C and 29.6°C and Sydney and Melbourne in the mid 20s. Darwin is the capital most likely to be wet and Perth the least. The forecast for the day itself first appears in the Bureau's 7-day forecast around 18 December, and that is the first forecast worth planning around.
What is Christmas Day weather usually like in each capital?
The Bureau does not publish a Christmas Day average for each capital, so the best guide is its December statistics for the main weather station in each city. The table uses the 1991-2020 period where the station has those years, and names the station, because readings differ between sites: in December, Melbourne Airport averages nights of 12.3°C against 14.3°C at the old city station.
| Capital | BOM station (years) | Avg high | Avg low | Days 35°C+ | Rain days (1 mm+) | Avg rain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin | Darwin Airport (1991-2020) | 33.0°C | 25.5°C | 3.1 | 15.0 | 279.3 mm |
| Brisbane | Brisbane (1999-2020) | 29.6°C | 20.5°C | 1.0 | 9.0 | 129.1 mm |
| Perth | Perth Metro (1994-2020) | 29.4°C | 16.4°C | 5.0 | 2.0 | 10.4 mm |
| Adelaide | Kent Town (1991-2020) | 27.6°C | 15.8°C | 4.2 | 4.4 | 28.3 mm |
| Canberra | Canberra Airport (2008-2020) | 27.6°C | 12.2°C | 1.9 | 6.5 | 75.0 mm |
| Sydney | Observatory Hill (1991-2020) | 25.7°C | 18.4°C | 0.8 | 7.9 | 73.0 mm |
| Melbourne | Melbourne Regional Office (1991-2015) | 24.8°C | 14.3°C | 2.1 | 6.5 | 60.9 mm |
| Hobart | Ellerslie Road (1991-2020) | 21.0°C | 11.6°C | 0.3 | 7.4 | 53.7 mm |
All figures are December averages from BOM climate statistics. "Days 35°C+" and "Rain days" are the average number of December days with that weather, not temperatures or chances. The Melbourne Regional Office closed in 2015, and the Brisbane, Perth Metro and Canberra Airport stations opened after 1991, which is why their periods are shorter. Kent Town closed in 2020, and Observatory Hill's record continues under a new station number (066214).
The capitals fall into three groups:
- Dry heat: Perth and Adelaide. Perth averages 12.4 December days of 30°C or more but only 2.0 days with 1 mm of rain. Adelaide averages 10.0 days of 30°C or more and 1.1 days of 40°C or more.
- Humid and stormy: Brisbane and Darwin. Darwin reaches 30°C on 29.0 of December's 31 days and its nights average 25.5°C. Brisbane has 13.3 days of 30°C or more and the second-highest December rainfall of the eight.
- Changeable south-east: Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart. Melbourne's average high is only 24.8°C, yet it averages 2.1 days of 35°C or more, more than Brisbane. Canberra's nights average 12.2°C, the coolest of the mainland capitals.
How likely is rain or a 35°C day on Christmas Day?
A rough guide is to divide the December days with a given kind of weather by 31. This is our arithmetic from the Bureau's averages, not a BOM statistic for 25 December, and it treats every December day alike. On that basis, the chance of at least 1 mm of rain on Christmas Day is roughly:
- Darwin: about 1 in 2 (15.0 of 31 days)
- Brisbane: about 3 in 10 (9.0 days)
- Sydney and Hobart: about 1 in 4 (7.9 and 7.4 days)
- Melbourne and Canberra: about 1 in 5 (6.5 days each)
- Adelaide: about 1 in 7 (4.4 days)
- Perth: about 1 in 15 (2.0 days)
For a scorcher of 35°C or more, Perth comes out at about 1 in 6 and Adelaide about 1 in 7, with Melbourne about 1 in 15 and Sydney about 1 in 40. A single year can land far from these odds, as the records below show. For what builds a run of hot days, see what causes Australian heatwaves.
What are the hottest Christmas Days on record?
The clearest record the Bureau states is Perth's. Perth Metro reached 42.8°C on Christmas Day 2021, its hottest Christmas Day, at the start of four consecutive days of 40°C or more from 25 to 28 December. The Bureau says that was the first such run in December and only the third in any month in Perth's official records, and Boxing Day reached 43.5°C. Christmas Day 2025 came second, at 42.1°C.
We could not find a Bureau page that lists Christmas Day records for all eight capitals, so this guide does not rank them. The Bureau's monthly climate summaries do record some memorable Christmas Days:
- Melbourne, 2011: thunderstorms on Christmas Day brought large hail that caused significant property damage. Our guide to Australian thunderstorms and hail explains how those storms form.
- Sydney, 2013: a cool, wet Christmas. Observatory Hill reached only 21.5°C on the 25th, the coldest day of the month, and most of December's rain fell over Christmas, with 21 mm in the 24 hours to 9 am on the 26th.
- Brisbane, 2025: 35.6°C on the 25th, the warmest day of the month.
When is the Christmas Day forecast worth reading?
From the moment it enters the Bureau's 7-day forecast, which is around 18 December. In 2025 the Bureau released its Christmas Day forecast on 18 December as part of the latest 7-day forecast, and added that it may change as the day approaches.
That warning mattered. The forecast issued on 18 December 2025 gave Perth a top of 39°C and Brisbane 32°C. Perth reached 42.1°C and Brisbane 35.6°C, both more than 3°C hotter than that first forecast. The Bureau refines the forecast in the days between, so the version you read on Christmas Eve is the one to trust.
Our own measurements show the same pattern. Across 40 Australian cities between 11 September and 6 October 2026, the European model's temperature forecast was off by an average of 0.92°C one day ahead and 2.11°C seven days ahead, more than twice the error. Those were spring weeks, not summer ones, so treat them as a guide: see forecast accuracy by day for the current figures and how far ahead you can trust an Australian forecast for what each range is good for.
Apps that show Christmas Day two weeks out are showing computer model output beyond the Bureau's own 7-day range; our guide to 14-day forecasts explains why those numbers move so much. When the models disagree a week out, our Australian forecast pages put them side by side for your town so you can see how settled the outlook really is.
What does a 7-day forecast tell you that a 4-week outlook cannot?
They answer different questions. The 7-day forecast, in the Bureau's words, is the best guide for weather and warnings for the coming week and gives likely conditions for a particular day. Long-range forecasts cover weeks, months and seasons and are about probability: the chance that rainfall or temperature will be above or below what is typical for that time of year.
| BOM product | Covers | Updated | What it tells you about 25 December |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-day forecast | The next 7 days | Daily | Expected maximum, minimum, rain and warnings for the day itself |
| 1-week and 2-week long-range | Weeks beyond the 7-day forecast | Daily | Whether Christmas week leans warmer or wetter than usual |
| Monthly (about 4 weeks) | The month ahead | Weekly | Background only: a warmer or wetter month than usual |
| Seasonal (3 months) | The season ahead | Weekly | Nothing about a single day |
Two points from the Bureau's own guidance are worth remembering in December. A high chance of more rain than usual does not mean a lot more rain: even the darkest blue on its maps, at least an 80% chance of above-typical rainfall, still leaves up to a 20% chance of less. And long-range forecasts are not designed to forecast short-term events such as tropical cyclones weeks in advance; those are covered in the 7-day forecast and warnings.
How should you plan Christmas Day around the weather?
- Four weeks out: use the December averages above and the monthly long-range forecast for background. Plan for heat in Perth and Adelaide and for a shower in Darwin and Brisbane.
- From about 18 December: read the 7-day forecast for the pattern: a hot day, a cool change or a storm risk.
- Christmas Eve and the morning: settle the timing and check BOM warnings, including fire danger ratings and severe thunderstorm warnings.
What about Christmas Day in New Zealand?
NIWA looked back at the ten Christmas Days before its December 2013 article. Wellington had the hottest of the six main centres, 28.6°C in 2012, and Dunedin was the wettest, with 1 mm or more of rain on 3 of the 10. That is one decade, so treat it as colour rather than a climate average. MetService's extended town forecasts run 10 days ahead (as shown for Auckland Central on 12 October 2026), so Christmas Day appears from about mid-December; see how far ahead you can trust a New Zealand forecast before reading much into it.
Christmas in Australia is a summer day with a wide spread: dry heat in the west, humid storms in the north, and anything from warm to cool in the south-east. Use the December averages for planning, start reading the Bureau's forecast from about 18 December, and leave the final call until Christmas Eve.