Melbourne weather
Loading live data…Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow
European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 17° in Melbourne today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 14°, with a 44% chance of rain.
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Melbourne and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Next 14 hours
consensus of the three models14-day forecast
where the models agree, and where they splitMelbourne, Victoria. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Melbourne right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Melbourne's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.
Melbourne weather by month
what to expect in Melbourne through the yearHere is Melbourne's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Melbourne by season.
What Melbourne's weather is like through the year
Melbourne runs from warm summers, with February highs near 26°C, to cold winters, when June lows sit around 7°C (a swing of about 19°C across the year). December is usually the wettest month, and Melbourne sees roughly 748 mm of precipitation annually.
Best time to visit Melbourne
The most comfortable time to visit Melbourne is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest December rain is behind you.
Which forecast is most accurate in Melbourne?
CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1493 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Melbourne, scoring 91/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the German at 89. See the full AU accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.