Which weather forecast is most accurate in the UK?
We put European, Met Office, American to the test against the weather that actually happened — temperature, wind and rain — over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Here is the honest scoreboard.
Over the last 30 days across 1950 UK cities, European was the most accurate forecast model in the UK — about ±0.3°C off the daily high, for the top CheckWeather Score of 92/100. No model wins every day, though, so we show them side by side and flag when they disagree.
30-day test · 1950 cities
updated 2026-10-19
Which forecast is most accurate in the UK?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. Apple Weather lists ECMWF and the US National Weather Service/NOAA among its data sources. What each big weather app says about its forecast.
Who wins each measure?
Temperature, wind and rain graded separately — not just an overall averageHow we tested this
No opinions — just measured error against what actually happenedThe models. We grade these open forecast models: European, Met Office, American. They each run their own physics, so they disagree — and that disagreement is the signal most apps hide.
The benchmark. For every city we take each model's archived forecast (what it actually predicted, not a hindsight run) and compare it to ERA5 — a reanalysis of the weather that genuinely occurred.
The score. We compute the mean absolute error for the daily high temperature and max wind, plus a rain/no-rain hit-rate, over the last 30 days across 1950 UK cities (2026-09-19 to 2026-10-19). Lower error scores higher; the CheckWeather Score blends all three.
The honest caveat. ERA5 is itself ECMWF-based, so it slightly favours the European model — we flag that rather than bury it. And no model wins every day, which is exactly why we show them side by side, live.
European came out on top this month — but read that carefully: the gaps are small and no forecast wins every day. That is the real lesson. Instead of asking "which app is most accurate," the smarter move is to watch every model at once: when they agree, trust the forecast; when they split, expect surprises. That is exactly what the live UK comparison shows you, town by town.
Popular weather apps — and what powers them
Real app-store ratings, plus the forecast each one runs on
App-store stars measure the app experience (design, features, reliability) — not forecast accuracy. For accuracy, see the model scoreboard above. Ratings from the US & UK App Store and Google Play, July 2026; they drift over time. Apple Weather is built into iOS, with no separate store rating.