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CheckWeather UKBirmingham
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Birmingham weather

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Light drizzle,cooler tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model put Birmingham's high today between 23° and 25°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 20°, with a 26% chance of rain.

24°13°
20°15°
17°11°
17°11°
17°11°
19°13°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±2°
Met OfficeUKMO model
25°
Drizzle
Today 25°·Low 14°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
23°
Light drizzle
Today 23°·Low 12°·Rain 76%
AmericanNOAA GFS
25°
Light drizzle
Today 25°·Low 14°·Rain 52%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Birmingham and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
24° 13°
±3°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
20° 15°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
17° 11°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
17° 11°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
19° 13°
±2°
Sat
Light drizzle
20° 10°
±5°
Sun
Light drizzle
21° 15°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
22° 13°
±4°
Tue
Light rain
19° 15°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
18° 11°
±7°
Thu
Light drizzle
20° 10°
±9°
Fri
Light drizzle
16° 12°
±5°
Sat
Light drizzle
17°
±6°

Birmingham, England. Below we compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Birmingham right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Birmingham's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Birmingham weather by month

what to expect in Birmingham through the year

Here is Birmingham's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Birmingham by season.

Jan
Cold
Feb
Cool
Mar
10°
Cool
Apr
12°
Cool
May
17°
Mild
Jun
20°
11°
Mild
Jul
19°
12°
Mild
Aug
20°
12°
Mild
Sep
19°
11°
Mild
Wettest
Oct
14°
Cool
Nov
Cool
Dec
Cool

What Birmingham's weather is like through the year

Birmingham runs from warm summers, with June highs near 20°C, to cold winters, when January lows sit around 2°C (a swing of about 18°C across the year). September is usually the wettest month, and Birmingham sees roughly 987 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Birmingham

The most comfortable time to visit Birmingham is usually May, June, July and August, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest September rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Birmingham?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
92±0.4°C98±0.7 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
86
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C97±1.0 mph7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
86
/100rank #3
88±0.7°C97±1.0 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Birmingham, scoring 96/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the Met Office at 86. See the full UK accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°23° to 25°±24%52% to 76% chance
Tomorrow±2°19° to 21°±4%22% to 26% chance
Tue±2°16° to 18°±20%51% to 71% chance
Wed±1°16° to 18°±5%11% to 16% chance
Thumodels agree17° to 17°±7%25% to 32% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Birmingham

today, local time
Sunrise
06:27
Sunset
19:44
Daylight
13h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Birmingham today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Birmingham today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Birmingham today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Birmingham and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Birmingham?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Birmingham (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the Met Office at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Birmingham?
June is typically the warmest month in Birmingham, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Birmingham get?
The coldest month in Birmingham is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Birmingham get?
Birmingham sees roughly 987 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Birmingham?
The most comfortable time to visit Birmingham is usually May, June, July and August, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest September rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Birmingham?
Rarely - Birmingham very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

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