Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 3°C
Taupo weather
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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow
European, the American and the German model put Taupo's high today between 18° and 22°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 19°, with a 0% chance of rain.
Taupo swings 17°C across the year, from 21°C highs in January to 4°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1408 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
January
21°C average high
Coldest month
July
4°C average low
Wettest month
July
1408 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and November
Residents
27,000
share this forecast
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Taupo and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Taupo hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Taupo 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
20°8°
±3°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
19°8°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
18°8°
±4°
Tue
Light rain
15°9°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15°6°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
15°8°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
16°7°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
18°6°
±2°
Sun
Light drizzle
16°8°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
16°10°
±4°
Tue
Rain
16°9°
±4°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
15°10°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
17°9°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
21°10°
models agree
Taupo, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 4°C), with roughly 1408 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Taupo right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
21°
14°
Feb
21°
14°
Mar
19°
12°
Apr
15°
9°
May
13°
7°
Jun
10°
5°
Jul
9°
4°
Aug
11°
4°
Sep
12°
5°
Oct
14°
7°
Nov
16°
9°
Dec
20°
12°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Taupo's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.5°C
Around Taupo, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004. 6 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 1998.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
13 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
5 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−5%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.5°C
−13
+2
+1%
1996
−0.9°C
−20
+4
+1%
1997
−0.8°C
−13
+1
+1%
1998
+0.8°C
+4
−0
+6%
1999
+0.5°C
+13
+2
−4%
2000
+0.2°C
+10
−2
+6%
2001
±0.0°C
−4
−1
−4%
2002
−0.3°C
−13
−0
+12%
2003
−0.1°C
−8
−0
+1%
2004
−1.0°C
−9
+10
+6%
2005
+0.1°C
−5
+3
−4%
2006
−0.7°C
−17
+1
+6%
2007
−0.1°C
−11
−0
+1%
2008
±0.0°C
+12
−0
+1%
2009
−0.7°C
+1
+8
+1%
2010
±0.0°C
−2
−1
−4%
2011
−0.2°C
−4
+7
+1%
2012
−0.8°C
−20
+3
+1%
2013
+0.4°C
+25
−4
−4%
2014
−0.2°C
−3
+1
+1%
2015
−0.2°C
+17
+12
−4%
2016
+0.5°C
+14
+1
+1%
2017
−0.1°C
−7
−3
−4%
2018
+0.3°C
+2
−5
−4%
2019
+0.7°C
+27
−7
+1%
2020
+0.4°C
+22
−5
−4%
2021
+0.5°C
+12
−6
−4%
2022
+0.6°C
+8
−5
−4%
2023
±0.0°C
−24
−4
+1%
2024
+0.2°C
+4
−5
−4%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Taupo, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Taupo?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
80
/100rank #1
77±1.3°C
92±3.9 km/h
7687% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
80
/100rank #2
70±1.7°C
85±7.6 km/h
8994% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
77
/100rank #3
68±1.8°C
92±4.1 km/h
7687% hit
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±3°18° to 22°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow
±3°18° to 20°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon
±4°16° to 20°
±25%0% to 25% chance
Tue
±2°14° to 16°
±7%93% to 100% chance
Wed
±1°15° to 16°
±26%16% to 42% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Taupo
today, local time
Sunrise
06:18
Sunset
19:42
Daylight
13h 24m
Common questions
What's the weather in Taupo today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Taupo's high today between 18° and 22°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 19°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Taupo today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Taupo on Sunday 25 October: no model gives more than 0% (European 0%, American 0%, German 0%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Taupo?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Taupo (CheckWeather Score 80/100), ahead of the American at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Taupo?
January is typically the warmest month in Taupo, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Taupo get?
The coldest month in Taupo is July, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Taupo get?
Taupo sees roughly 1408 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
Is Taupo getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Taupo, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004.
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