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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Papamoa weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 19° in Papamoa today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 19°, with a 97% chance of rain.

19°12°
19°13°
21°16°
22°16°
20°15°
22°13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Thursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agreeSaturdaymodels agreeSundaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Light drizzle
Feels 18° · Wind 15 km/h · Humidity 74%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Partly cloudy
Feels 19° · Wind 9 km/h · Humidity 68%
GermanDWD ICON
19°
Partly cloudy
Feels 18° · Wind 15 km/h · Humidity 75%

Latest for Papamoa: European (ECMWF): 19° Light drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 19° Partly cloudy · German (DWD ICON): 19° Partly cloudy.

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Papamoa weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Papamoa swings 18°C across the year, from 23°C highs in February to 5°C lows in August, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1729 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
23°C average high
Coldest month
August
5°C average low
Wettest month
June
1729 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Papamoa and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Papamoa hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Papamoa 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
19° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
19° 13°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
21° 16°
models agree
Fri
Rain
22° 16°
models agree
Sat
Rain
20° 15°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
22° 13°
models agree
Mon
Rain
20° 12°
±3°
Tue
Rain
20° 15°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
20° 15°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 14°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
22° 14°
±4°
Sat
Drizzle
21° 14°
±8°
Sun
Drizzle
21° 15°
±6°
Mon
Rain
23° 16°
models agree

Papamoa, New Zealand is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 5°C), with roughly 1729 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Papamoa right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Papamoa climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
21°
16°
Feb
23°
16°
Mar
22°
14°
Apr
19°
13°
May
16°
10°
Jun
14°
8°
Jul
14°
7°
Aug
14°
5°
Sep
15°
8°
Oct
16°
9°
Nov
18°
11°
Dec
21°
14°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Papamoa has changed since 1995

Papamoa sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Tauranga. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Tauranga page.

Which forecast is most accurate in New Zealand?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
86±0.8°C95±2.7 km/h8592% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #2
78±1.2°C91±4.6 km/h7888% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
81
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C94±3.1 km/h6983% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°19° to 20°±93%3% to 96% chance
Tomorrow±3°17° to 21°±64%33% to 97% chance
Thu±2°20° to 22°±45%31% to 76% chance
Fri±2°21° to 23°±34%62% to 96% chance
Sat±2°19° to 21°±16%75% to 91% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Papamoa

today, local time
Sunrise
06:06
Sunset
19:51
Daylight
13h 45m

Common questions

What's the weather in Papamoa today?
Tuesday 3 November: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 19° in Papamoa today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 19°, with a 97% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Papamoa today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Papamoa on Wednesday 4 November: European 97%, American 55%, German 33%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Tuesday 3 November the highest chance of rain from any model is 96%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Papamoa?
No single model is always right. European, American, German each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Papamoa forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested NZ accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Papamoa?
February is typically the warmest month in Papamoa, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Papamoa get?
The coldest month in Papamoa is August, when overnight lows average about 5°C.
How much rain does Papamoa get?
Papamoa sees roughly 1729 mm of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

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