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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Mount Maunganui (The Mount) weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 20° in Mount Maunganui today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 21°, with a 0% chance of rain.

20°9°
21°11°
20°10°
19°12°
19°9°
19°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
12°
Mainly clear
Feels 11° · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 87%
AmericanNOAA GFS
10°
Overcast
Feels 9° · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 94%
GermanDWD ICON
13°
Overcast
Feels 13° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 85%

Latest for Mount Maunganui: European (ECMWF): 12° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 10° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 13° Overcast.

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Mount Maunganui weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Mount Maunganui swings 17°C across the year, from 23°C highs in February to 6°C lows in August, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1677 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
23°C average high
Coldest month
August
6°C average low
Wettest month
July
1677 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
7,250
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Mount Maunganui and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Mount Maunganui hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Mount Maunganui 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
20° 9°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
21° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
20° 10°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
19° 12°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
19° 9°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 10°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
20° 11°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
21° 8°
±2°
Sun
Light drizzle
18° 9°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
18° 15°
±2°
Tue
Light rain
19° 13°
±3°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
18° 12°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 10°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
21° 10°
±4°

Mount Maunganui, New Zealand (often shortened to The Mount, Mt Maunganui) is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 6°C), with roughly 1677 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Mount Maunganui right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Mount Maunganui climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
22°
16°
Feb
23°
16°
Mar
22°
14°
Apr
19°
13°
May
17°
10°
Jun
14°
8°
Jul
14°
7°
Aug
14°
6°
Sep
15°
8°
Oct
17°
9°
Nov
19°
11°
Dec
21°
14°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Mount Maunganui has changed since 1995

Mount Maunganui sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Tauranga. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Tauranga page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Mount Maunganui?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C96±2.2 km/h7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
84
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C93±3.6 km/h7184% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
80
/100rank #3
80±1.1°C92±3.9 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°20° to 21°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree21° to 21°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±1°20° to 21°±8%0% to 8% chance
Tuemodels agree18° to 19°±13%87% to 100% chance
Wed±2°18° to 20°±27%14% to 41% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mount Maunganui

today, local time
Sunrise
06:18
Sunset
19:40
Daylight
13h 22m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mount Maunganui today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 20° in Mount Maunganui today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 21°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Mount Maunganui today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Mount Maunganui on Sunday 25 October: no model gives more than 0% (European 0%, American 0%, German 0%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mount Maunganui?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Mount Maunganui (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the German at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mount Maunganui?
February is typically the warmest month in Mount Maunganui, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Mount Maunganui get?
The coldest month in Mount Maunganui is August, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Mount Maunganui get?
Mount Maunganui sees roughly 1677 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

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