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Forecast confidence: Low · models disagree by 5°C

Katikati weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Katikati's high today between 21° and 25°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 20°, with a 65% chance of rain.

22°10°
20°10°
20°10°
18°10°
18°8°
18°10°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaysplit ±2°Wednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
11°
Partly cloudy
Feels 10° · Wind 9 km/h · Humidity 97%
AmericanNOAA GFS
9°
Mainly clear
Feels 8° · Wind 7 km/h · Humidity 99%
GermanDWD ICON
13°
Partly cloudy
Feels 12° · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 93%

Latest for Katikati: European (ECMWF): 11° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 9° Mainly clear · German (DWD ICON): 13° Partly cloudy.

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Katikati weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Katikati swings 17°C across the year, from 23°C highs in February to 6°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1699 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
23°C average high
Coldest month
July
6°C average low
Wettest month
July
1699 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
6,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Katikati and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Katikati hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Katikati 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
22° 10°
±5°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
20° 10°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
20° 10°
±4°
Tue
Light rain
18° 10°
±2°
Wed
Cloudy
18° 8°
±3°
Thu
Drizzle
18° 10°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
18° 11°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
20° 9°
±3°
Sun
Light drizzle
18° 9°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
20° 13°
±3°
Tue
Light rain
18° 12°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
17° 11°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
20° 9°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
21° 8°
±2°

Katikati, New Zealand is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 6°C), with roughly 1699 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Katikati right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Katikati climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
22°
15°
Feb
23°
16°
Mar
22°
14°
Apr
19°
13°
May
16°
10°
Jun
14°
8°
Jul
13°
6°
Aug
14°
6°
Sep
15°
8°
Oct
17°
9°
Nov
19°
11°
Dec
22°
14°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Katikati has changed since 1995

Katikati sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Morrinsville. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Morrinsville page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Katikati?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
G
German ★ Best
85
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C96±2.1 km/h7184% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
European logo
European
84
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C95±2.4 km/h7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #3
72±1.6°C88±6.0 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°21° to 25°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±3°18° to 21°±65%0% to 65% chance
Mon±4°18° to 22°±67%0% to 67% chance
Tue±2°18° to 20°±21%79% to 100% chance
Wed±3°17° to 20°±19%23% to 42% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Katikati

today, local time
Sunrise
06:20
Sunset
19:42
Daylight
13h 22m

Common questions

What's the weather in Katikati today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Katikati's high today between 21° and 25°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 20°, with a 65% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Katikati today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Katikati on Sunday 25 October: European 65%, American 0%, German 0%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Katikati?
Over the last 30 days, the German model has been the most accurate for Katikati (CheckWeather Score 85/100), ahead of the European at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Katikati?
February is typically the warmest month in Katikati, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Katikati get?
The coldest month in Katikati is July, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Katikati get?
Katikati sees roughly 1699 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

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