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Forecast confidence: Low · models disagree by 5°C

Mangapapa weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Mangapapa's high today between 22° and 27°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 24°, with a 0% chance of rain.

24°11°
24°11°
22°11°
21°13°
20°11°
20°10°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaysplit ±6°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Partly cloudy
Today 22°·Low 13°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
27°
Cloudy
Today 27°·Low 9°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
24°
Cloudy
Today 24°·Low 12°·Rain 0%
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Mangapapa weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Mangapapa swings 17°C across the year, from 23°C highs in January to 6°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1176 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
23°C average high
Coldest month
July
6°C average low
Wettest month
July
1176 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
5,160
share this forecast

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Mangapapa and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Mangapapa hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Mangapapa 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
24° 11°
±5°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
24° 11°
±3°
Mon
Partly cloudy
22° 11°
±6°
Tue
Drizzle
21° 13°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
20° 11°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
20° 10°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
18° 9°
±6°
Sat
Mostly clear
20° 8°
±2°
Sun
Cloudy
22° 8°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
20° 14°
±4°
Tue
Drizzle
18° 13°
±7°
Wed
Drizzle
19° 11°
±7°
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 11°
±9°
Fri
Partly cloudy
19° 9°
±3°

Mangapapa, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 6°C), with roughly 1176 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Mangapapa right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Mangapapa climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
23°
17°
Feb
23°
15°
Mar
22°
14°
Apr
19°
12°
May
16°
10°
Jun
13°
8°
Jul
14°
6°
Aug
14°
6°
Sep
16°
7°
Oct
17°
9°
Nov
19°
12°
Dec
22°
14°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Mangapapa has changed since 1995

Mangapapa sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Gisborne. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Gisborne page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Mangapapa?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
82±1.0°C91±4.7 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
59±2.3°C78±11.0 km/h8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
70
/100rank #3
77±1.3°C91±4.5 km/h4771% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°22° to 27°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±3°22° to 25°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±6°20° to 25°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°20° to 22°±53%7% to 60% chance
Wed±2°19° to 21°±31%8% to 39% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mangapapa

today, local time
Sunrise
06:10
Sunset
19:34
Daylight
13h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mangapapa today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Mangapapa's high today between 22° and 27°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 24°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Mangapapa today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Mangapapa on Sunday 25 October: no model gives more than 0% (European 0%, American 0%, German 0%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mangapapa?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Mangapapa (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mangapapa?
January is typically the warmest month in Mangapapa, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Mangapapa get?
The coldest month in Mangapapa is July, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Mangapapa get?
Mangapapa sees roughly 1176 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

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