Kaikoura weather
Loading live data…Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow
European, the American and the German model put Kaikoura's high today between 20° and 23°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 20°, with a 39% chance of rain.
Latest for Kaikoura: European (ECMWF): 19° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 20° Drizzle · German (DWD ICON): 22° Overcast.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Kaikoura weather in numbers
from 30 years of measured normalsKaikoura swings 17°C across the year, from 21°C highs in February to 4°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 892 mm of precipitation.
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Kaikoura and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Kaikoura hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Kaikoura 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitKaikoura, New Zealand is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 4°C), with roughly 892 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Kaikoura right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.
Kaikoura climate by month
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Kaikoura's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Kaikoura, 2015-2024 averaged 0.4°C warmer than 1995-2004. 7 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2019.
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | −0.4°C | +4% |
| 1996 | −0.4°C | +4% |
| 1997 | −0.5°C | +4% |
| 1998 | +0.5°C | −1% |
| 1999 | +0.3°C | −1% |
| 2000 | −0.2°C | −1% |
| 2001 | +0.1°C | −6% |
| 2002 | −0.2°C | +8% |
| 2003 | −0.1°C | +1% |
| 2004 | −0.5°C | +8% |
| 2005 | +0.2°C | −9% |
| 2006 | −0.4°C | +6% |
| 2007 | −0.1°C | −4% |
| 2008 | ±0.0°C | +1% |
| 2009 | −0.5°C | +1% |
| 2010 | −0.1°C | −1% |
| 2011 | −0.2°C | +4% |
| 2012 | −0.4°C | −1% |
| 2013 | +0.5°C | −4% |
| 2014 | −0.1°C | +4% |
| 2015 | −0.2°C | +4% |
| 2016 | +0.5°C | −1% |
| 2017 | +0.1°C | −4% |
| 2018 | +0.4°C | −4% |
| 2019 | +0.6°C | −1% |
| 2020 | +0.2°C | −1% |
| 2021 | +0.4°C | −4% |
| 2022 | +0.4°C | −1% |
| 2023 | +0.4°C | +4% |
| 2024 | +0.3°C | −6% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Kaikoura, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Kaikoura?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.