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CheckWeather CAFergus
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Fergus weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 23° in Fergus today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 23°, with a 0% chance of rain.

23°13°
23°11°
22°14°
23°16°
21°13°
20°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±5°
Env. CanadaGEM model
24°
Mostly clear
Today 24°·Low 14°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Partly cloudy
Today 22°·Low 14°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
23°
Cloudy
Today 23°·Low 13°·Rain 1%

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Fergus and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
23° 13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
23° 11°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
22° 14°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
23° 16°
±4°
Thu
Drizzle
21° 13°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
20° 10°
±5°
Sat
Showers
23° 13°
±4°
Sun
Light drizzle
21° 13°
±12°
Mon
Drizzle
18°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
19° 11°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
18° 10°
±4°
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 10°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
19° 10°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
17° 11°
models agree

Fergus, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -7°C), with roughly 967 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Fergus right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Fergus climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-1°
-6°
Feb
-7°
Mar
-4°
Apr
13°
May
19°
Jun
23°
13°
Jul
25°
15°
Aug
23°
14°
Sep
22°
13°
Oct
15°
Nov
Dec
-3°

Which forecast is most accurate in Fergus?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C98±1.1 km/t9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
89
/100rank #2
82±1.0°C91±4.6 km/t9597% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
75
/100rank #3
90±0.5°C96±2.1 km/t4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1302 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°22° to 24°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tomorrow±1°22° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°22° to 23°±8%0% to 8% chance
Wed±4°21° to 25°±48%34% to 82% chance
Thu±2°20° to 23°±14%10% to 24% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Fergus

today, local time
Sunrise
06:51
Sunset
19:48
Daylight
12h 57m

Common questions

What's the weather in Fergus today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Fergus today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Fergus today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Fergus and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Fergus?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Fergus (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Fergus?
July is typically the warmest month in Fergus, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Fergus get?
The coldest month in Fergus is February, when overnight lows average about -7°C.
How much rain does Fergus get?
Fergus sees roughly 967 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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