Kitchener weather
Loading live data…Clear,much the same tomorrow
Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Kitchener's high today between 15° and 17°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 17°, with a 2% chance of rain.
Latest for Kitchener: Env. Canada (GEM model): 1° Clear · European (ECMWF): 5° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 2° Clear.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Kitchener weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weatherKitchener swings 35°C across the year, from 25°C highs in July to -10°C lows in February, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 959 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 67 days a year at 25°C or above, 9 of them at 30°C or above, 140 frost nights, and rain on 143 days.
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Kitchener’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Kitchener and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Kitchener hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Kitchener 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitKitchener, Ontario. Below we compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Kitchener right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Kitchener's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.
Kitchener weather by month
what to expect in Kitchener through the year, 1991-2020 averagesHere is Kitchener's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Kitchener by season.
What Kitchener's weather is like through the year
Kitchener runs from warm summers, with July highs near 25°C, to cold winters, when February lows sit around -10°C (a swing of about 35°C across the year). July is usually the wettest month, and Kitchener sees roughly 959 mm of precipitation annually. Overnight lows stay below freezing across 5 months (January, February, March, November and December), so Kitchener sees regular winter snowfall.
Best time to visit Kitchener
The most comfortable time to visit Kitchener is usually May, June, August and September, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.
How Kitchener's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Kitchener, 2015-2024 averaged 0.9°C warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.
Days above 30°C
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Days >30°C vs avg | Frost nights vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | −0.4°C | +11 | +12 | +5% |
| 1996 | −1.3°C | −12 | +19 | +3% |
| 1997 | −1.1°C | −12 | +20 | +5% |
| 1998 | +1.4°C | +2 | −21 | −3% |
| 1999 | +0.2°C | +8 | −7 | +3% |
| 2000 | −1.0°C | −16 | −5 | −3% |
| 2001 | +0.1°C | −3 | −3 | −3% |
| 2002 | −0.1°C | +11 | +24 | +3% |
| 2003 | −1.2°C | −9 | +1 | +3% |
| 2004 | −0.8°C | −15 | −9 | +1% |
| 2005 | +0.2°C | +10 | +4 | −5% |
| 2006 | +0.8°C | +4 | −8 | +1% |
| 2007 | +0.3°C | +12 | −6 | +1% |
| 2008 | −0.6°C | −9 | +2 | +1% |
| 2009 | −0.8°C | −10 | +2 | −3% |
| 2010 | +0.5°C | +9 | −7 | −1% |
| 2011 | +0.1°C | +4 | −3 | −3% |
| 2012 | +1.4°C | +15 | −10 | −3% |
| 2013 | −0.8°C | −10 | +6 | −1% |
| 2014 | −1.9°C | −12 | +5 | +1% |
| 2015 | −0.5°C | −3 | −10 | −1% |
| 2016 | +0.8°C | +14 | −3 | +1% |
| 2017 | +0.2°C | −11 | −4 | +3% |
| 2018 | ±0.0°C | +2 | +19 | +1% |
| 2019 | −0.7°C | −5 | +4 | +3% |
| 2020 | +0.9°C | +12 | +9 | +3% |
| 2021 | +1.2°C | +9 | −4 | −3% |
| 2022 | +0.1°C | +2 | −5 | +1% |
| 2023 | +1.0°C | −4 | −4 | −5% |
| 2024 | +1.8°C | +5 | −27 | −5% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Kitchener, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Kitchener?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Kitchener, scoring 94/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the American at 90. See the full CA accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.