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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Calgary weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 3° in Calgary today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 1°, with a 71% chance of rain.

3°-3°
1°-4°
3°-5°
5°-3°
0°-4°
0°-4°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±5°
Env. CanadaGEM model
-5°
Clear
Feels -9° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 83%
EuropeanECMWF
-3°
Partly cloudy
Feels -7° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 72%
AmericanNOAA GFS
-1°
Overcast
Feels -5° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 79%

Latest for Calgary: Env. Canada (GEM model): -5° Clear · European (ECMWF): -3° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): -1° Overcast.

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Calgary weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Calgary swings 37°C across the year, from 23°C highs in July to -14°C lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 440 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 34 days a year at 25°C or above, 5 of them at 30°C or above, 188 frost nights, and rain on 95 days.

Warmest month
July
23°C average high
Coldest month
January
-14°C average low
Wettest month
June
440 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, July, August and September
Residents
1.3 million
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
93/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
34 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
188 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
95 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Calgary’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Calgary and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Calgary in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Calgary, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

What are you doing?

Where are you going?

Calgary hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

Loading the three models…

Calgary 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
3° -3°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
1° -4°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
3° -5°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
5° -3°
models agree
Wed
Snow
0° -4°
±5°
Thu
Snow
0° -4°
±5°
Fri
Light snow
1° -5°
±10°
Sat
Cloudy
4° -6°
±6°
Sun
Cloudy
8° -4°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
8° -1°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
8° 0°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
8° 0°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
11° 2°
±8°

Calgary, Alberta. Below we compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Calgary right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Calgary's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Calgary weather by month

what to expect in Calgary through the year, 1991-2020 averages

Here is Calgary's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Calgary by season.

Jan
-4°
-14°
Cold
Feb
0°
-11°
Cold
Mar
3°
-9°
Cold
Apr
10°
-2°
Cool
May
16°
3°
Mild
Jun
20°
7°
Mild
Wettest
Jul
23°
10°
Warm
Aug
23°
10°
Warm
Sep
18°
5°
Mild
Oct
11°
-1°
Cool
Nov
2°
-6°
Cold
Dec
-3°
-11°
Cold

What Calgary's weather is like through the year

Calgary runs from warm summers, with July highs near 23°C, to cold winters, when January lows sit around -14°C (a swing of about 37°C across the year). June is usually the wettest month, and Calgary sees roughly 440 mm of precipitation annually. Overnight lows stay below freezing across 7 months (January, February, March, April, October, November and December), so Calgary sees regular winter snowfall.

Best time to visit Calgary

The most comfortable time to visit Calgary is usually May, July, August and September, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest June rain is behind you.

How Calgary's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.3°C

Around Calgary, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average1996: −2.3°C vs the 30-year average1997: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average1998: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average1999: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2001: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average2002: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2003: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2004: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2005: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average2007: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average2009: −0.9°C vs the 30-year average2010: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2011: −0.9°C vs the 30-year average2012: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2013: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2014: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2015: +1.1°C vs the 30-year average2016: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average2017: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2018: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2019: −1.1°C vs the 30-year average2020: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2021: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2022: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2023: +1.5°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 25°C

4 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −15 vs the 30-year average1996: +5 vs the 30-year average1997: −4 vs the 30-year average1998: +5 vs the 30-year average1999: −9 vs the 30-year average2000: −1 vs the 30-year average2001: +15 vs the 30-year average2002: −1 vs the 30-year average2003: +21 vs the 30-year average2004: −17 vs the 30-year average2005: −18 vs the 30-year average2006: +14 vs the 30-year average2007: +2 vs the 30-year average2008: −4 vs the 30-year average2009: −0 vs the 30-year average2010: −12 vs the 30-year average2011: −2 vs the 30-year average2012: +6 vs the 30-year average2013: −6 vs the 30-year average2014: −6 vs the 30-year average2015: +2 vs the 30-year average2016: −12 vs the 30-year average2017: +15 vs the 30-year average2018: +2 vs the 30-year average2019: −16 vs the 30-year average2020: −2 vs the 30-year average2021: +20 vs the 30-year average2022: +15 vs the 30-year average2023: +12 vs the 30-year average2024: +2 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

7 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +17 vs the 30-year average1996: +8 vs the 30-year average1997: +3 vs the 30-year average1998: −16 vs the 30-year average1999: +1 vs the 30-year average2000: +5 vs the 30-year average2001: −5 vs the 30-year average2002: +16 vs the 30-year average2003: −2 vs the 30-year average2004: −0 vs the 30-year average2005: −6 vs the 30-year average2006: −6 vs the 30-year average2007: −5 vs the 30-year average2008: +1 vs the 30-year average2009: +21 vs the 30-year average2010: +6 vs the 30-year average2011: +6 vs the 30-year average2012: +2 vs the 30-year average2013: −0 vs the 30-year average2014: −5 vs the 30-year average2015: −9 vs the 30-year average2016: −17 vs the 30-year average2017: +6 vs the 30-year average2018: +6 vs the 30-year average2019: +9 vs the 30-year average2020: −1 vs the 30-year average2021: −0 vs the 30-year average2022: −5 vs the 30-year average2023: −16 vs the 30-year average2024: −11 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

+2%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −6% vs the 30-year average1996: −2% vs the 30-year average1997: +4% vs the 30-year average1998: −9% vs the 30-year average1999: +1% vs the 30-year average2000: −6% vs the 30-year average2001: +1% vs the 30-year average2002: +1% vs the 30-year average2003: −2% vs the 30-year average2004: +1% vs the 30-year average2005: +1% vs the 30-year average2006: −2% vs the 30-year average2007: +1% vs the 30-year average2008: −2% vs the 30-year average2009: +4% vs the 30-year average2010: −2% vs the 30-year average2011: +7% vs the 30-year average2012: +4% vs the 30-year average2013: +1% vs the 30-year average2014: −2% vs the 30-year average2015: +1% vs the 30-year average2016: −2% vs the 30-year average2017: +1% vs the 30-year average2018: −2% vs the 30-year average2019: −2% vs the 30-year average2020: +7% vs the 30-year average2021: +1% vs the 30-year average2022: +7% vs the 30-year average2023: −2% vs the 30-year average2024: −2% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >25°C vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.5°C−15+17−6%
1996−2.3°C+5+8−2%
1997+0.2°C−4+3+4%
1998+0.8°C+5−16−9%
1999+0.6°C−9+1+1%
2000−0.3°C−1+5−6%
2001+0.7°C+15−5+1%
2002−0.6°C−1+16+1%
2003+0.3°C+21−2−2%
2004+0.3°C−17−0+1%
2005±0.0°C−18−6+1%
2006+0.7°C+14−6−2%
2007+0.2°C+2−5+1%
2008−0.7°C−4+1−2%
2009−0.9°C−0+21+4%
2010−0.2°C−12+6−2%
2011−0.9°C−2+6+7%
2012+0.1°C+6+2+4%
2013±0.0°C−6−0+1%
2014−0.5°C−6−5−2%
2015+1.1°C+2−9+1%
2016+0.9°C−12−17−2%
2017−0.3°C+15+6+1%
2018−0.6°C+2+6−2%
2019−1.1°C−16+9−2%
2020−0.1°C−2−1+7%
2021+0.4°C+20−0+1%
2022+0.1°C+15−5+7%
2023+1.5°C+12−16−2%
2024+0.3°C+2−11−2%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Calgary, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Calgary?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C96±2.1 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
88
/100rank #2
87±0.7°C89±5.4 km/h8994% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
84
/100rank #3
74±1.4°C93±3.6 km/h8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Calgary, scoring 93/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the Env. Canada at 88. See the full CA accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
Loading ratings…
EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°2° to 4°±10%19% to 29% chance
Tomorrow±1°1° to 2°±38%33% to 71% chance
Mon±4°2° to 6°±12%2% to 14% chance
Tue±2°5° to 7°±25%9% to 34% chance
Wed±5°-2° to 3°±10%33% to 43% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Calgary

today, local time
Sunrise
08:15
Sunset
18:24
Daylight
10h 9m

Common questions

What's the weather in Calgary today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 3° in Calgary today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 1°, with a 71% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Calgary today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Calgary on Sunday, October 25: Env. Canada 71%, European 33%, American 47%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 29%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Calgary?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Calgary (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Calgary?
July is typically the warmest month in Calgary, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Calgary get?
The coldest month in Calgary is January, when overnight lows average about -14°C.
How much rain does Calgary get?
Calgary sees roughly 440 mm of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Calgary?
The most comfortable time to visit Calgary is usually May, July, August and September, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest June rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Calgary?
Yes - overnight lows fall below freezing across 7 months (January, February, March, April, October, November and December) in Calgary, so winter snowfall is common.
Is Calgary getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Calgary, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

More CA weather