Guelph weather
Loading live data…Clear,much the same tomorrow
Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Guelph's high today between 15° and 17°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 17°, with a 0% chance of rain.
Latest for Guelph: Env. Canada (GEM model): 7° Clear · European (ECMWF): 8° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 8° Clear.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Guelph weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weatherGuelph swings 36°C across the year, from 25°C highs in July to -11°C lows in February, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 900 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 65 days a year at 25°C or above, 10 of them at 30°C or above, 140 frost nights, and rain on 140 days.
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Guelph’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Guelph and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Guelph hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Guelph 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitGuelph, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -11°C), with roughly 900 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Guelph right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.
Guelph climate by month
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How the weather around Guelph has changed since 1995
Guelph sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Brampton. That square ran 0.9°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Brampton page.
Which forecast is most accurate in Guelph?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.