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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Blackfalds weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 2° in Blackfalds today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 1°, with a 18% chance of rain.

2°-4°
1°-5°
4°-4°
5°-4°
0°-4°
-2°-7°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°
Env. CanadaGEM model
-3°
Clear
Feels -8° · Wind 13 km/h · Humidity 88%
EuropeanECMWF
-2°
Partly cloudy
Feels -7° · Wind 20 km/h · Humidity 82%
AmericanNOAA GFS
-2°
Overcast
Feels -8° · Wind 22 km/h · Humidity 82%

Latest for Blackfalds: Env. Canada (GEM model): -3° Clear · European (ECMWF): -2° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): -2° Overcast.

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Blackfalds weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Blackfalds swings 37°C across the year, from 22°C highs in July to -15°C lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 472 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
22°C average high
Coldest month
January
-15°C average low
Wettest month
July
472 mm a year
Below freezing
7 months
January, February, March, April, October, November and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
11,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Blackfalds and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Blackfalds hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Blackfalds 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
2° -4°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
1° -5°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
4° -4°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
5° -4°
models agree
Wed
Snow
0° -4°
models agree
Thu
Snow
-2° -7°
±3°
Fri
Light snow
0° -7°
±6°
Sat
Cloudy
0° -7°
±9°
Sun
Partly cloudy
6° -6°
±6°
Mon
Cloudy
8° -1°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
8° 0°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
6° 0°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
10° 1°
±8°

Blackfalds, Alberta is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -15°C), with roughly 472 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Blackfalds right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Blackfalds climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-6°
-15°
Feb
-4°
-15°
Mar
1°
-10°
Apr
9°
-3°
May
16°
4°
Jun
19°
8°
Jul
22°
11°
Aug
21°
9°
Sep
16°
5°
Oct
9°
-2°
Nov
0°
-7°
Dec
-5°
-13°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Blackfalds has changed since 1995

Blackfalds sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Red Deer. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Red Deer page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Blackfalds?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
94±0.4°C96±1.9 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
85
/100rank #2
82±1.0°C95±2.6 km/h8290% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
79
/100rank #3
80±1.1°C88±5.8 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°2° to 3°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tomorrow±1°1° to 2°±16%2% to 18% chance
Mon±2°3° to 5°±4%1% to 5% chance
Tue±2°4° to 6°±18%7% to 25% chance
Wed±2°-1° to 1°±17%22% to 39% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Blackfalds

today, local time
Sunrise
08:17
Sunset
18:20
Daylight
10h 3m

Common questions

What's the weather in Blackfalds today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 2° in Blackfalds today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 1°, with a 18% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Blackfalds today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Blackfalds on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 18% (Env. Canada 11%, European 2%, American 18%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 1%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Blackfalds?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Blackfalds (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Blackfalds?
July is typically the warmest month in Blackfalds, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Blackfalds get?
The coldest month in Blackfalds is January, when overnight lows average about -15°C.
How much rain does Blackfalds get?
Blackfalds sees roughly 472 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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