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Prior Lake weather

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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Prior Lake and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split

Prior Lake, MN is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 13°F), with roughly 38 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Prior Lake right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Prior Lake climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
26°
13°
Feb
36°
16°
Mar
41°
23°
Apr
55°
37°
May
72°
51°
Jun
80°
61°
Jul
82°
63°
Aug
80°
63°
Sep
78°
60°
Oct
62°
46°
Nov
45°
31°
Dec
35°
23°

Which forecast is most accurate in the US?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
87±1.3°F96±1.2 mph8592% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #2
81±1.9°F93±2.2 mph4972% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Common questions

What's the weather in Prior Lake today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Prior Lake today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Prior Lake today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Prior Lake and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Prior Lake?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Prior Lake forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Prior Lake?
July is typically the warmest month in Prior Lake, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Prior Lake get?
The coldest month in Prior Lake is January, when overnight lows average about 13°F.
How much rain does Prior Lake get?
Prior Lake sees roughly 38 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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