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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Eden Prairie weather

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Light rain,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 73° in Eden Prairie today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 53°, with a 40% chance of rain.

73°53°
53°46°
48°44°
61°45°
64°50°
62°47°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±9°Wednesdaysplit ±8°Thursdaysplit ±9°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
73°
Light rain
Today 73°·Low 53°·Rain 43%
AmericanNOAA GFS
72°
Light drizzle
Today 72°·Low 51°·Rain 43%
EuropeanECMWF
73°
Drizzle
Today 73°·Low 54°·Rain 67%
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Eden Prairie weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Eden Prairie…

Eden Prairie weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Eden Prairie swings 73°F across the year, from 82°F highs in July to 9°F lows in January, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 33 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 85 days a year at 77°F or above, 21 of them at 86°F or above, 143 frost nights, and rain on 108 days.

Warmest month
July
82°F average high
Coldest month
January
9°F average low
Wettest month
August
33 in a year
Comfortable
3 months
May, June and September
Residents
63,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
93/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
85 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
143 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
108 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Eden Prairie’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Eden Prairie and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Eden Prairie hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Eden Prairie 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
73° 53°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
53° 46°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
48° 44°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
61° 45°
±9°
Wed
Light drizzle
64° 50°
±8°
Thu
Mostly clear
62° 47°
±9°
Fri
Cloudy
65° 50°
±13°
Sat
Drizzle
64° 53°
±12°
Sun
Light drizzle
58° 45°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
54° 40°
±7°
Tue
Cloudy
46° 38°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
50° 41°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
55° 38°
±16°

Eden Prairie, Minnesota (MN) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 9°F), with roughly 33 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Eden Prairie right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Eden Prairie climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
21°
9°
Feb
30°
10°
Mar
41°
23°
Apr
54°
36°
May
69°
48°
Jun
78°
60°
Jul
82°
64°
Aug
80°
63°
Sep
73°
55°
Oct
57°
41°
Nov
40°
28°
Dec
26°
15°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Eden Prairie has changed since 1995

Eden Prairie sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Plymouth. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Plymouth page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Eden Prairie?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F97±1.0 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F95±1.4 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°72° to 73°±24%43% to 67% chance
Tomorrow±4°51° to 55°±19%21% to 40% chance
Mon±1°48° to 49°±1%61% to 62% chance
Tue±9°56° to 66°±8%64% to 72% chance
Wed±8°61° to 69°models agree35% to 35% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Eden Prairie

today, local time
Sunrise
07:41
Sunset
18:13
Daylight
10h 32m

Common questions

What's the weather in Eden Prairie today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 73° in Eden Prairie today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 53°, with a 40% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Eden Prairie today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Eden Prairie on Sunday, October 25: NWS 21%, American 21%, European 40%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 67%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Eden Prairie?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Eden Prairie (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Eden Prairie?
July is typically the warmest month in Eden Prairie, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Eden Prairie get?
The coldest month in Eden Prairie is January, when overnight lows average about 9°F.
How much rain does Eden Prairie get?
Eden Prairie sees roughly 33 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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