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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Houston weather

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Showers,thunder likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 89° in Houston today. Tomorrow looks heavy showers around 89°, with a 95% chance of rain.

89°78°
89°78°
91°78°
94°80°
93°80°
95°79°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±4°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±9°Wednesdaysplit ±13°Thursdaysplit ±14°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
87°
Showers
Today 87°·Low 79°·Rain 49%
AmericanNOAA GFS
89°
Heavy drizzle
Today 89°·Low 79°·Rain 49%
EuropeanECMWF
90°
Thunderstorm
Today 90°·Low 76°·Rain 76%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Houston and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
89° 78°
models agree
Tomorrow
Heavy showers
89° 78°
±4°
Mon
Partly cloudy
91° 78°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
94° 80°
±9°
Wed
Mostly clear
93° 80°
±13°
Thu
Light drizzle
95° 79°
±14°
Fri
Mostly clear
96° 80°
±12°
Sat
Light drizzle
95° 80°
±9°
Sun
Light drizzle
94° 81°
±11°
Mon
Thunderstorm
93° 80°
±11°
Tue
Light drizzle
92° 79°
±11°
Wed
Drizzle
90° 76°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
92° 75°
models agree
Fri
Clear
94° 74°
models agree

Houston, TX. Below we compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Houston right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Houston's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Houston weather by month

what to expect in Houston through the year

Here is Houston's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °F, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Houston by season.

Jan
63°
46°
Mild
Feb
70°
52°
Mild
Mar
75°
58°
Warm
Apr
78°
62°
Warm
May
84°
70°
Warm
Jun
92°
75°
Hot
Jul
92°
77°
Hot
Wettest
Aug
96°
79°
Hot
Sep
91°
74°
Hot
Oct
83°
65°
Warm
Nov
73°
57°
Warm
Dec
67°
51°
Mild

What Houston's weather is like through the year

Houston runs from warm summers, with August highs near 96°F, to cold winters, when January lows sit around 46°F (a swing of about 50°F across the year). July is usually the wettest month, and Houston sees roughly 70 inches of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Houston

The most comfortable time to visit Houston is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 60-78°F range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Houston?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
85
/100rank #1
88±1.2°F98±0.6 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
56
/100rank #2
77±2.3°F93±2.2 mph548% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Houston, scoring 85/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the American at 56. See the full US accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°87° to 90°±27%49% to 76% chance
Tomorrow±4°88° to 92°±73%22% to 95% chance
Mon±3°90° to 92°±30%19% to 49% chance
Tue±9°90° to 99°±45%23% to 68% chance
Wed±13°88° to 100°±43%21% to 64% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Houston

today, local time
Sunrise
07:01
Sunset
19:39
Daylight
12h 38m

Common questions

What's the weather in Houston today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Houston today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Houston today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Houston and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Houston?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Houston (CheckWeather Score 85/100), ahead of the American at 56. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Houston?
August is typically the warmest month in Houston, with average highs around 96°F.
How cold does Houston get?
The coldest month in Houston is January, when overnight lows average about 46°F.
How much rain does Houston get?
Houston sees roughly 70 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Houston?
The most comfortable time to visit Houston is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 60-78°F range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Houston?
Rarely - Houston very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

Nearby

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