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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Kingswood weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Kingswood today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 12°, with a 96% chance of rain.

15°8°
12°9°
16°9°
16°10°
14°9°
13°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
15°
Rain
Today 15°·Low 8°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Rain
Today 15°·Low 7°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Rain
Today 15°·Low 8°·Rain 100%
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Kingswood weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for South West England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for South West England…

Kingswood weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Kingswood swings 18°C across the year, from 20°C highs in August to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 898 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 11 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 28 frost nights, and rain on 150 days.

Warmest month
August
20°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
898 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
41,000
share this forecast
Warm days
11 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
28 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
150 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Kingswood’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Kingswood and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kingswood hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Kingswood 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
15° 8°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
12° 9°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
16° 9°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
14° 9°
models agree
Thu
Fog
13° 8°
models agree
Fri
Heavy drizzle
14° 8°
models agree
Sat
Heavy drizzle
13° 7°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
12° 6°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
11° 6°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
10° 5°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
8° 3°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
7° 3°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
9° 3°
±3°

Kingswood, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 898 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Kingswood right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Kingswood climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
2°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
9°
4°
Apr
12°
5°
May
16°
8°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
19°
12°
Aug
20°
13°
Sep
18°
11°
Oct
14°
8°
Nov
10°
5°
Dec
7°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Kingswood has changed since 1995

Kingswood sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Bristol. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Bristol page.

Which forecast is most accurate in the UK?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±1.0 mph8793% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
85
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C95±1.5 mph7184% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #3
88±0.7°C93±2.1 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 15°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°11° to 12°±44%52% to 96% chance
Mon±1°16° to 17°±3%97% to 100% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±29%71% to 100% chance
Wedmodels agree14° to 14°±43%24% to 67% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Kingswood

today, local time
Sunrise
07:49
Sunset
17:58
Daylight
10h 9m

Common questions

What's the weather in Kingswood today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Kingswood today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 12°, with a 96% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Kingswood today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Kingswood on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 52% (Met Office 67%, European 52%, American 96%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kingswood?
No single model is always right. Met Office, European, American each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Kingswood forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested UK accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Kingswood?
August is typically the warmest month in Kingswood, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Kingswood get?
The coldest month in Kingswood is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Kingswood get?
Kingswood sees roughly 898 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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