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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Bristol weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 26° in Bristol today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 20°, with a 48% chance of rain.

26°14°
20°16°
19°12°
18°12°
19°12°
21°14°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±2°
Met OfficeUKMO model
19°
Overcast
Feels 19° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 82%
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Overcast
Feels 18° · Wind 8 mph · Humidity 84%
AmericanNOAA GFS
17°
Overcast
Feels 17° · Wind 5 mph · Humidity 83%

Latest for Bristol: Met Office (UKMO model): 19° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 18° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 17° Overcast.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Bristol and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
26° 14°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
20° 16°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
19° 12°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
18° 12°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 12°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
21° 14°
±2°
Sat
Light drizzle
21° 11°
±4°
Sun
Drizzle
21° 15°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
21° 14°
±3°
Tue
Drizzle
21° 15°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
19° 11°
±7°
Thu
Drizzle
19° 11°
±5°
Fri
Drizzle
18° 14°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
18° 11°
±5°

Bristol, England. Below we compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Bristol right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Bristol's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Bristol weather by month

what to expect in Bristol through the year

Here is Bristol's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Bristol by season.

Jan
Cool
Feb
10°
Cool
Mar
10°
Cool
Apr
12°
Cool
May
17°
Mild
Jun
20°
11°
Mild
Jul
19°
13°
Mild
Aug
20°
13°
Mild
Sep
19°
12°
Mild
Wettest
Oct
15°
10°
Mild
Nov
11°
Cool
Dec
10°
Cool

What Bristol's weather is like through the year

Bristol runs from warm summers, with June highs near 20°C, to cold winters, when January lows sit around 2°C (a swing of about 18°C across the year). September is usually the wettest month, and Bristol sees roughly 1221 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Bristol

The most comfortable time to visit Bristol is usually May, June, July and August, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest September rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Bristol?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C98±0.6 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
87
/100rank #2
80±1.1°C96±1.3 mph8994% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #3
71±1.6°C96±1.3 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Bristol, scoring 93/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the Met Office at 87. See the full UK accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°25° to 26°±19%61% to 80% chance
Tomorrow±1°20° to 20°±35%13% to 48% chance
Tuemodels agree18° to 19°±15%84% to 99% chance
Wed±3°17° to 20°±3%4% to 7% chance
Thu±2°18° to 20°±3%23% to 26% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Bristol

today, local time
Sunrise
06:31
Sunset
19:46
Daylight
13h 15m

Common questions

What's the weather in Bristol today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Bristol today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Bristol today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Bristol and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Bristol?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Bristol (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the Met Office at 87. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Bristol?
June is typically the warmest month in Bristol, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Bristol get?
The coldest month in Bristol is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Bristol get?
Bristol sees roughly 1221 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Bristol?
The most comfortable time to visit Bristol is usually May, June, July and August, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest September rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Bristol?
Rarely - Bristol very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

Nearby

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