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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Derbyshire weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Derbyshire today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 12°, with a 33% chance of rain.

11°7°
12°7°
10°6°
10°6°
9°7°
10°5°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agreeSaturdaymodels agreeSundaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
9°
Overcast
Feels 7° · Wind 8 mph · Humidity 93%
EuropeanECMWF
8°
Overcast
Feels 5° · Wind 10 mph · Humidity 94%
AmericanNOAA GFS
10°
Light drizzle
Feels 6° · Wind 12 mph · Humidity 90%

Latest for Derbyshire: Met Office (UKMO model): 9° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 8° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 10° Light drizzle.

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Derbyshire weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for East Midlands

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for East Midlands…

Derbyshire weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Derbyshire swings 19°C across the year, from 20°C highs in July to 1°C lows in February, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 739 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 12 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 31 frost nights, and rain on 147 days.

Warmest month
July
20°C average high
Coldest month
February
1°C average low
Wettest month
October
739 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Most accurate here
European
89/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
12 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
31 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
147 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Derbyshire’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Derbyshire and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Derbyshire hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Derbyshire 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
11° 7°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
12° 7°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
10° 6°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
10° 6°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
9° 7°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
10° 5°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
9° 4°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
9° 4°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
8° 4°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
8° 5°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
9° 7°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
10° 7°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
11° 6°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
11° 6°
models agree

Derbyshire, England is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around 1°C), with roughly 739 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Derbyshire right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Derbyshire climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
7°
2°
Feb
7°
1°
Mar
9°
3°
Apr
12°
5°
May
15°
7°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
20°
12°
Sep
18°
10°
Oct
14°
7°
Nov
9°
4°
Dec
7°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Derbyshire has changed since 1995

Derbyshire sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Nottingham. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Nottingham page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Derbyshire?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C97±0.8 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #2
80±1.1°C89±3.5 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
76
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C96±1.3 mph5374% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°11° to 12°±65%2% to 67% chance
Tomorrow±1°11° to 12°±17%16% to 33% chance
Thu±2°9° to 11°±3%0% to 3% chance
Fri±1°10° to 10°±7%0% to 7% chance
Sat±2°8° to 10°±53%14% to 67% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Derbyshire

today, local time
Sunrise
07:06
Sunset
16:31
Daylight
9h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Derbyshire today?
Tuesday 3 November: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Derbyshire today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 12°, with a 33% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Derbyshire today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Derbyshire on Wednesday 4 November: Met Office 33%, European 24%, American 16%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Tuesday 3 November the highest chance of rain from any model is 67%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Derbyshire?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Derbyshire (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 79. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Derbyshire?
July is typically the warmest month in Derbyshire, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Derbyshire get?
The coldest month in Derbyshire is February, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Derbyshire get?
Derbyshire sees roughly 739 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

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