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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Alfreton weather

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Light drizzle,cooler tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 23° in Alfreton today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 19°, with a 21% chance of rain.

23°11°
19°15°
16°10°
17°10°
17°
19°12°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
24°
Heavy drizzle
Today 24°·Low 11°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Light drizzle
Today 22°·Low 11°·Rain 78%
AmericanNOAA GFS
23°
Light drizzle
Today 23°·Low 12°·Rain 32%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Alfreton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
23° 11°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
19° 15°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
17° 10°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
17°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
19° 12°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
19°
±5°
Sun
Heavy drizzle
20° 14°
±2°
Mon
Partly cloudy
21° 12°
±6°
Tue
Light rain
18° 12°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
17° 10°
±6°
Thu
Light drizzle
18°
±8°
Fri
Light drizzle
16°
±4°
Sat
Light drizzle
16°
±5°

Alfreton, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 976 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Alfreton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Alfreton climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
11°
May
16°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
19°
12°
Aug
20°
12°
Sep
18°
11°
Oct
14°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Alfreton?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C98±0.7 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
88
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C96±1.2 mph8290% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C89±3.5 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°22° to 24°±46%32% to 78% chance
Tomorrow±1°18° to 19°±8%13% to 21% chance
Tue±1°16° to 16°±1%67% to 68% chance
Wed±2°16° to 17°±7%16% to 23% chance
Thu±2°17° to 18°±12%17% to 29% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Alfreton

today, local time
Sunrise
06:24
Sunset
19:43
Daylight
13h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Alfreton today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Alfreton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Alfreton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Alfreton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Alfreton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Alfreton (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the Met Office at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Alfreton?
August is typically the warmest month in Alfreton, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Alfreton get?
The coldest month in Alfreton is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Alfreton get?
Alfreton sees roughly 976 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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