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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 2°C

Flaxmere weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Flaxmere's high today between 26° and 28°, a 2° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 25°, with a 0% chance of rain.

27°9°
25°10°
27°8°
23°10°
19°8°
22°8°
Todaysplit ±2°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Mainly clear
Feels 11° · Wind 19 km/h · Humidity 65%
AmericanNOAA GFS
11°
Overcast
Feels 9° · Wind 5 km/h · Humidity 81%
GermanDWD ICON
11°
Overcast
Feels 9° · Wind 7 km/h · Humidity 87%

Latest for Flaxmere: European (ECMWF): 14° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 11° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 11° Overcast.

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Flaxmere weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Flaxmere swings 20°C across the year, from 24°C highs in February to 4°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 853 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
24°C average high
Coldest month
July
4°C average low
Wettest month
July
853 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
11,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Flaxmere and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Flaxmere hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Flaxmere 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
27° 9°
±2°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
25° 10°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
27° 8°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
23° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
19° 8°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
22° 8°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
19° 8°
±7°
Sat
Mostly clear
23° 8°
±3°
Sun
Cloudy
25° 9°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
25° 13°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
17° 11°
±8°
Wed
Drizzle
17° 12°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
19° 11°
±6°
Fri
Partly cloudy
21° 8°
±7°

Flaxmere, New Zealand is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 24°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 4°C), with roughly 853 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Flaxmere right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Flaxmere climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
23°
15°
Feb
24°
14°
Mar
22°
12°
Apr
20°
10°
May
16°
7°
Jun
13°
6°
Jul
12°
4°
Aug
14°
4°
Sep
16°
6°
Oct
18°
8°
Nov
19°
10°
Dec
23°
13°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Flaxmere has changed since 1995

Flaxmere sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Hastings. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Hastings page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Flaxmere?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C96±2.0 km/h8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
77
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C94±2.8 km/h5877% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
76
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C90±4.9 km/h5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°26° to 28°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°25° to 26°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±1°26° to 27°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±1°23° to 24°±48%15% to 63% chance
Wed±3°18° to 21°±20%8% to 28% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Flaxmere

today, local time
Sunrise
06:13
Sunset
19:41
Daylight
13h 28m

Common questions

What's the weather in Flaxmere today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Flaxmere's high today between 26° and 28°, a 2° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 25°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Flaxmere today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Flaxmere on Sunday 25 October: no model gives more than 0% (European 0%, American 0%, German 0%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Flaxmere?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Flaxmere (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the German at 77. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Flaxmere?
February is typically the warmest month in Flaxmere, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Flaxmere get?
The coldest month in Flaxmere is July, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Flaxmere get?
Flaxmere sees roughly 853 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

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