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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Simcoe weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 16° in Simcoe today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 17°, with a 2% chance of rain.

16°4°
17°8°
19°9°
12°5°
15°5°
19°9°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±3°
Env. CanadaGEM model
3°
Clear
Feels 1° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 94%
EuropeanECMWF
9°
Clear
Feels 7° · Wind 2 km/h · Humidity 85%
AmericanNOAA GFS
4°
Clear
Feels 1° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 88%

Latest for Simcoe: Env. Canada (GEM model): 3° Clear · European (ECMWF): 9° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 4° Clear.

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Simcoe weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Simcoe swings 32°C across the year, from 25°C highs in July to -7°C lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1005 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
25°C average high
Coldest month
January
-7°C average low
Wettest month
September
1005 mm a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
14,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Simcoe and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Simcoe hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Simcoe 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
16° 4°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
17° 8°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
19° 9°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
12° 5°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15° 5°
±6°
Thu
Partly cloudy
19° 9°
±3°
Fri
Clear
16° 7°
±5°
Sat
Cloudy
18° 8°
±4°
Sun
Drizzle
17° 11°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
15° 7°
±2°
Tue
Drizzle
11° 3°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
8° 2°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
11° 5°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
11° 4°
±3°

Simcoe, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -7°C), with roughly 1005 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Simcoe right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Simcoe climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-1°
-7°
Feb
1°
-7°
Mar
5°
-4°
Apr
12°
2°
May
18°
7°
Jun
23°
14°
Jul
25°
16°
Aug
25°
16°
Sep
21°
13°
Oct
14°
6°
Nov
8°
1°
Dec
2°
-3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Simcoe has changed since 1995

Simcoe sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Brantford. That square ran 1.1°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Brantford page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Simcoe?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C93±3.7 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
90
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C91±4.3 km/h9597% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
87
/100rank #3
91±0.5°C97±1.7 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°14° to 16°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±3°15° to 18°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±2°18° to 20°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tue±1°11° to 12°±2%0% to 2% chance
Wed±6°13° to 18°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Simcoe

today, local time
Sunrise
07:45
Sunset
18:24
Daylight
10h 39m

Common questions

What's the weather in Simcoe today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 16° in Simcoe today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 17°, with a 2% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Simcoe today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Simcoe on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 2% (Env. Canada 0%, European 2%, American 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Simcoe?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Simcoe (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Simcoe?
July is typically the warmest month in Simcoe, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Simcoe get?
The coldest month in Simcoe is January, when overnight lows average about -7°C.
How much rain does Simcoe get?
Simcoe sees roughly 1005 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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