Picton swings 33°C across the year, from 24°C highs in July to -9°C lows in February, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1029 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
July
24°C average high
Coldest month
February
-9°C average low
Wettest month
November
1029 mm a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
4,702
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The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Picton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Picton hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Picton 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Picton, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 24°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -9°C), with roughly 1029 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Picton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-2°
-8°
Feb
0°
-9°
Mar
4°
-4°
Apr
11°
2°
May
17°
8°
Jun
21°
13°
Jul
24°
17°
Aug
24°
17°
Sep
21°
13°
Oct
14°
7°
Nov
7°
1°
Dec
1°
-4°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Picton's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.5°C
Around Picton, 2015-2024 averaged 1.5°C warmer than 1995-2004. 6 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
26 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004
Frost nights
12 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
no clear change
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−1.4°C
−7
+27
−0%
1996
−2.3°C
−25
+29
−3%
1997
−1.0°C
−17
+14
+4%
1998
+1.1°C
−5
−20
−3%
1999
−0.1°C
−3
+2
+2%
2000
−0.8°C
−26
−5
+2%
2001
−0.5°C
−13
+8
−5%
2002
−0.4°C
−10
+9
+2%
2003
−1.9°C
−19
+16
−3%
2004
−0.7°C
−26
−2
−3%
2005
+0.4°C
+32
+9
−3%
2006
+0.9°C
+1
−23
+2%
2007
−0.1°C
−1
+7
+2%
2008
−0.2°C
−12
+8
+2%
2009
−0.4°C
−13
−8
−3%
2010
+0.8°C
+20
−16
−0%
2011
+0.5°C
+8
−10
−0%
2012
+1.7°C
+27
−18
−0%
2013
+0.1°C
−3
+7
+4%
2014
−1.2°C
−18
+20
+2%
2015
−0.5°C
−2
+1
−0%
2016
+1.1°C
+27
−6
+2%
2017
+0.6°C
−9
−9
+2%
2018
+0.1°C
+32
+16
−0%
2019
−0.7°C
−0
+14
+2%
2020
+1.1°C
+28
−12
+2%
2021
+1.2°C
+9
−10
−3%
2022
+0.6°C
+11
+1
+2%
2023
+1.3°C
−1
−11
−7%
2024
+1.9°C
+19
−24
−0%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Picton, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Picton?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C
98±1.2 km/h
7687% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
87
/100rank #2
90±0.6°C
96±1.9 km/h
7687% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
86
/100rank #3
88±0.7°C
95±2.7 km/h
7687% hit
Environment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
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Common questions
What's the weather in Picton today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Picton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Picton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Picton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Picton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Picton (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 87. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Picton?
July is typically the warmest month in Picton, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Picton get?
The coldest month in Picton is February, when overnight lows average about -9°C.
How much rain does Picton get?
Picton sees roughly 1029 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.
Is Picton getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Picton, 2015-2024 averaged 1.5°C warmer than 1995-2004.
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