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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Morden weather

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Cloudy,cooler tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Morden's high today between 16° and 18°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: clear, around 7°, with a 0% chance of rain.

17°5°
7°-1°
6°-3°
5°-2°
10°4°
10°1°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±6°
Env. CanadaGEM model
7°
Overcast
Feels 0° · Wind 36 km/h · Humidity 65%
EuropeanECMWF
9°
Overcast
Feels 3° · Wind 31 km/h · Humidity 64%
AmericanNOAA GFS
6°
Partly cloudy
Feels 0° · Wind 27 km/h · Humidity 73%

Latest for Morden: Env. Canada (GEM model): 7° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 9° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 6° Partly cloudy.

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Morden weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Morden swings 41°C across the year, from 25°C highs in July to -16°C lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 526 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
25°C average high
Coldest month
January
-16°C average low
Wettest month
June
526 mm a year
Below freezing
6 months
January, February, March, April, November and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, July, August and September
Residents
8,668
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Morden and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Morden hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Morden 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
17° 5°
±3°
Tomorrow
Clear
7° -1°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
6° -3°
models agree
Tue
Snow
5° -2°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
10° 4°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
10° 1°
±6°
Fri
Cloudy
12° 2°
±3°
Sat
Drizzle
10° 6°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
8° 2°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
7° 2°
±5°
Tue
Cloudy
7° -1°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
10° 1°
±9°
Thu
Cloudy
10° 1°
±7°

Morden, Manitoba is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -16°C), with roughly 526 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Morden right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Morden climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-10°
-16°
Feb
-7°
-16°
Mar
0°
-9°
Apr
8°
-2°
May
17°
6°
Jun
23°
13°
Jul
25°
15°
Aug
23°
14°
Sep
19°
9°
Oct
10°
2°
Nov
0°
-7°
Dec
-6°
-14°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Morden has changed since 1995

Morden sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Winkler. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Winkler page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Morden?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
EC
Env. Canada ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
90±0.6°C96±2.0 km/h7687% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
European logo
European
87
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C97±1.3 km/h7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #3
88±0.6°C96±2.1 km/h6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°16° to 18°±24%1% to 25% chance
Tomorrow±2°6° to 8°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±1°5° to 6°±8%1% to 9% chance
Tue±3°4° to 7°±28%17% to 45% chance
Wed±3°8° to 11°±24%33% to 57% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Morden

today, local time
Sunrise
08:07
Sunset
18:24
Daylight
10h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Morden today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Morden's high today between 16° and 18°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: clear, around 7°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Morden today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Morden on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (Env. Canada 0%, European 0%, American 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 25%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Morden?
Over the last 30 days, the Env. Canada model has been the most accurate for Morden (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the European at 87. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Morden?
July is typically the warmest month in Morden, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Morden get?
The coldest month in Morden is January, when overnight lows average about -16°C.
How much rain does Morden get?
Morden sees roughly 526 mm of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather