Skip to main content
One weather site to rule them all
checkweather.io
CheckWeather CA›Mill Bay
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Mill Bay weather

Loading live data…

Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 10° in Mill Bay today. Tomorrow: rain, around 12°, with a 99% chance of rain.

10°5°
12°8°
15°7°
13°6°
10°5°
8°4°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
7°
Overcast
Feels 4° · Wind 2 km/h · Humidity 69%
EuropeanECMWF
6°
Light drizzle
Feels 4° · Wind 3 km/h · Humidity 91%
AmericanNOAA GFS
5°
Overcast
Feels 3° · Wind 1 km/h · Humidity 79%

Latest for Mill Bay: Env. Canada (GEM model): 7° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 6° Light drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 5° Overcast.

CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.

Mill Bay weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Mill Bay swings 26°C across the year, from 28°C highs in July to 2°C lows in January, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1277 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
28°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
November
1277 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
3 months
May, June and September
Residents
7,200
share this forecast

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Mill Bay and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Mill Bay hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

Loading the three models…

Mill Bay 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
10° 5°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
12° 8°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 7°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
13° 6°
models agree
Wed
Showers
10° 5°
±3°
Thu
Showers
8° 4°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
9° 2°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
9° 2°
±3°
Sun
Cloudy
10° 4°
±3°
Mon
Drizzle
11° 5°
±4°
Tue
Light drizzle
13° 4°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
11° 7°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
13° 9°
±4°

Mill Bay, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 28°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1277 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Mill Bay right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Mill Bay climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
7°
2°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
10°
2°
Apr
14°
5°
May
19°
9°
Jun
22°
12°
Jul
28°
15°
Aug
27°
15°
Sep
22°
12°
Oct
15°
7°
Nov
10°
4°
Dec
7°
2°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Mill Bay has changed since 1995

Mill Bay sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Langford. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Langford page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Mill Bay?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
84±0.9°C94±3.0 km/h9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
89
/100rank #2
80±1.1°C96±1.9 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
83
/100rank #3
74±1.4°C97±1.6 km/h8290% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
Loading ratings…
EuropeanECMWF
Loading ratings…
AmericanNOAA GFS
Loading ratings…

One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°10° to 11°±44%48% to 92% chance
Tomorrow±3°11° to 13°±25%74% to 99% chance
Mon±2°14° to 16°±41%18% to 59% chance
Tue±2°12° to 14°±12%17% to 29% chance
Wed±3°9° to 12°±21%42% to 63% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mill Bay

today, local time
Sunrise
07:48
Sunset
18:07
Daylight
10h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mill Bay today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 10° in Mill Bay today. Tomorrow: rain, around 12°, with a 99% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Mill Bay today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Mill Bay on Sunday, October 25: every model gives at least 74% (Env. Canada 82%, European 99%, American 74%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 92%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mill Bay?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Mill Bay (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the European at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mill Bay?
July is typically the warmest month in Mill Bay, with average highs around 28°C.
How cold does Mill Bay get?
The coldest month in Mill Bay is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Mill Bay get?
Mill Bay sees roughly 1277 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather