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Every Canadian forecast, compared
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CheckWeather CAMill Bay
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Mill Bay weather

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Partly cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 21° in Mill Bay today. Tomorrow looks clear around 24°, with a 5% chance of rain.

21°12°
24°12°
20°12°
21°12°
23°12°
21°13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±3°
Env. CanadaGEM model
21°
Partly cloudy
Today 21°·Low 11°·Rain 10%
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 12°·Rain 31%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Cloudy
Today 22°·Low 13°·Rain 6%

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Mill Bay and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
21° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
24° 12°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
20° 12°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
21° 12°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
23° 12°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
21° 13°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
21° 12°
±3°
Sat
Drizzle
23° 13°
±3°
Sun
Light drizzle
23° 12°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
23° 13°
±6°
Tue
Partly cloudy
24° 13°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
21° 12°
±2°
Thu
Partly cloudy
19° 12°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
18° 10°
±4°

Mill Bay, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 28°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1228 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Mill Bay right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Mill Bay climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
10°
Apr
13°
May
20°
10°
Jun
22°
12°
Jul
28°
15°
Aug
27°
15°
Sep
22°
12°
Oct
15°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Mill Bay?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
83
/100rank #1
69±1.7°C96±1.8 km/t8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #2
75±1.4°C91±4.3 km/t5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
68
/100rank #3
54±2.6°C96±1.8 km/t6581% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1302 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°21° to 22°±25%6% to 31% chance
Tomorrow±2°23° to 25°±5%0% to 5% chance
Mon±3°19° to 22°±6%19% to 25% chance
Tue±3°20° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±5°21° to 25°±4%1% to 5% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mill Bay

today, local time
Sunrise
06:37
Sunset
19:48
Daylight
13h 11m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mill Bay today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Mill Bay today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Mill Bay today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Mill Bay and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mill Bay?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Mill Bay (CheckWeather Score 83/100), ahead of the American at 73. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mill Bay?
July is typically the warmest month in Mill Bay, with average highs around 28°C.
How cold does Mill Bay get?
The coldest month in Mill Bay is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Mill Bay get?
Mill Bay sees roughly 1228 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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