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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Erin weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Erin today. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 17°, with a 0% chance of rain.

14°2°
17°4°
15°5°
9°1°
11°2°
19°6°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
2°
Clear
Feels -1° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 94%
EuropeanECMWF
5°
Clear
Feels 2° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 88%
AmericanNOAA GFS
3°
Clear
Feels 0° · Wind 7 km/h · Humidity 86%

Latest for Erin: Env. Canada (GEM model): 2° Clear · European (ECMWF): 5° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 3° Clear.

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Erin weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Erin swings 37°C across the year, from 26°C highs in July to -11°C lows in February, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 960 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
26°C average high
Coldest month
February
-11°C average low
Wettest month
August
960 mm a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and September
Residents
12,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Erin and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Erin hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Erin 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
14° 2°
models agree
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
17° 4°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
15° 5°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
9° 1°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
11° 2°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
19° 6°
models agree
Fri
Clear
15° 5°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
17° 6°
±7°
Sun
Showers
16° 8°
±3°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
14° 5°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
8° 1°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
6° -1°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
9° 1°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
8° 0°
models agree

Erin, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -11°C), with roughly 960 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Erin right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Erin climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-4°
-9°
Feb
-1°
-11°
Mar
3°
-6°
Apr
11°
0°
May
19°
7°
Jun
22°
12°
Jul
26°
15°
Aug
24°
14°
Sep
20°
10°
Oct
13°
5°
Nov
6°
-1°
Dec
-1°
-6°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Erin has changed since 1995

Erin sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Caledon. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Caledon page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Erin?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C98±1.2 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
85
/100rank #2
85±0.8°C97±1.7 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
83
/100rank #3
85±0.8°C89±5.5 km/h7687% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°14° to 15°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°17° to 18°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±3°13° to 16°±7%0% to 7% chance
Tue±1°8° to 9°±5%0% to 5% chance
Wed±5°9° to 14°±3%2% to 5% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Erin

today, local time
Sunrise
07:45
Sunset
18:22
Daylight
10h 37m

Common questions

What's the weather in Erin today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Erin today. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 17°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Erin today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Erin on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (Env. Canada 0%, European 0%, American 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Erin?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Erin (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Erin?
July is typically the warmest month in Erin, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Erin get?
The coldest month in Erin is February, when overnight lows average about -11°C.
How much rain does Erin get?
Erin sees roughly 960 mm of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather