Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Elliot Lake today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 15°, with a 51% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.
Elliot Lake swings 38°C across the year, from 23°C highs in July to -15°C lows in February, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 917 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
July
23°C average high
Coldest month
February
-15°C average low
Wettest month
October
917 mm a year
Below freezing
6 months
January, February, March, April, November and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
13,000
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The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Elliot Lake and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Elliot Lake hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Elliot Lake 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
15°4°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
15°8°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
9°1°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
6°-1°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
11°3°
±3°
Thu
Drizzle
13°5°
±6°
Fri
Light drizzle
11°3°
±5°
Sat
Drizzle
15°7°
±6°
Sun
Showers
13°10°
models agree
Mon
Rain
11°5°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
6°1°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
5°0°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
6°2°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
8°1°
±5°
Elliot Lake, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -15°C), with roughly 917 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Elliot Lake right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-8°
-14°
Feb
-6°
-15°
Mar
-1°
-9°
Apr
8°
-2°
May
17°
6°
Jun
22°
12°
Jul
23°
14°
Aug
23°
14°
Sep
19°
10°
Oct
11°
4°
Nov
4°
-3°
Dec
-3°
-10°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Elliot Lake's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.8°C
Around Elliot Lake, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.8°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
8 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
5 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.9°C
+8
+4
+3%
1996
−1.6°C
−13
+18
−1%
1997
−1.4°C
−13
+14
−5%
1998
+1.6°C
+6
−9
−1%
1999
+0.7°C
+6
−10
+3%
2000
−0.5°C
−18
+5
−1%
2001
+0.6°C
−10
−8
−1%
2002
−0.3°C
−2
+26
−1%
2003
−1.1°C
−11
−0
−1%
2004
−1.1°C
−18
+1
+3%
2005
+0.5°C
+20
+2
−1%
2006
+1.1°C
+5
−2
−1%
2007
+0.5°C
+12
−13
+3%
2008
−0.7°C
−17
+2
+3%
2009
−0.9°C
−16
+8
−1%
2010
+1.1°C
+18
−11
+3%
2011
+0.6°C
+17
−6
−1%
2012
+1.7°C
+26
−7
+3%
2013
−0.7°C
−5
+8
+3%
2014
−2.0°C
−26
+8
−1%
2015
−0.5°C
−11
−9
−1%
2016
+0.8°C
+2
−0
−1%
2017
±0.0°C
−15
+3
−1%
2018
−0.3°C
+12
+14
−1%
2019
−1.5°C
−12
+9
−1%
2020
+0.3°C
+11
+14
−1%
2021
+1.6°C
+15
−12
−5%
2022
+0.1°C
+0
−2
+3%
2023
+1.4°C
+3
−12
−5%
2024
+2.2°C
+13
−20
−1%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Elliot Lake, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Elliot Lake?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C
97±1.3 km/h
9597% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
86
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C
96±2.1 km/h
8290% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
83
/100rank #3
78±1.2°C
94±3.2 km/h
8290% hit
Environment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
Env. CanadaGEM model
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±2°14° to 16°
±2%0% to 2% chance
Tomorrow
±5°12° to 17°
±46%5% to 51% chance
Mon
±1°9° to 10°
±1%5% to 6% chance
Tue
±3°5° to 7°
±4%0% to 4% chance
Wed
±3°10° to 13°
±27%19% to 46% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Elliot Lake
today, local time
Sunrise
08:00
Sunset
18:28
Daylight
10h 28m
Common questions
What's the weather in Elliot Lake today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Elliot Lake today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 15°, with a 51% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Elliot Lake today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Elliot Lake on Sunday, October 25: Env. Canada 5%, European 51%, American 33%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 2%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Elliot Lake?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Elliot Lake (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Elliot Lake?
July is typically the warmest month in Elliot Lake, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Elliot Lake get?
The coldest month in Elliot Lake is February, when overnight lows average about -15°C.
How much rain does Elliot Lake get?
Elliot Lake sees roughly 917 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.
Is Elliot Lake getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Elliot Lake, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.8°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
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