Tobermory swings 28°C across the year, from 20°C highs in July to -8°C lows in February, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 986 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
July
20°C average high
Coldest month
February
-8°C average low
Wettest month
December
986 mm a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
1,427
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The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Tobermory and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Tobermory hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Tobermory 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Tobermory, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -8°C), with roughly 986 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Tobermory right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-3°
-7°
Feb
-3°
-8°
Mar
1°
-4°
Apr
7°
1°
May
13°
6°
Jun
16°
10°
Jul
20°
15°
Aug
20°
15°
Sep
18°
13°
Oct
11°
8°
Nov
5°
1°
Dec
1°
-3°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Tobermory's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.8°C
Around Tobermory, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.8°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Frost nights
5 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−1.0°C
+26
+3%
1996
−2.0°C
+31
−2%
1997
−1.4°C
+8
−3%
1998
+1.5°C
−23
−3%
1999
+0.6°C
−14
+3%
2000
+0.1°C
−9
+1%
2001
±0.0°C
−0
−0%
2002
±0.0°C
+7
+3%
2003
−1.6°C
+14
−0%
2004
−0.4°C
+1
+3%
2005
+0.6°C
+6
−2%
2006
+1.0°C
−29
−2%
2007
+0.1°C
−3
+3%
2008
−0.6°C
+8
+3%
2009
−0.5°C
−4
−2%
2010
+0.9°C
−20
+1%
2011
−0.1°C
+8
−2%
2012
+1.6°C
−31
+1%
2013
−0.3°C
+17
+1%
2014
−2.0°C
+27
−0%
2015
−0.9°C
−1
−0%
2016
+1.0°C
−4
−2%
2017
+0.5°C
−7
+3%
2018
−0.5°C
+27
−2%
2019
−1.3°C
+14
+1%
2020
+0.4°C
+11
−0%
2021
+1.3°C
−14
−2%
2022
−0.3°C
+9
+1%
2023
+1.2°C
−11
−5%
2024
+2.0°C
−33
−2%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Tobermory, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Tobermory?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
EC
Env. Canada ★ Best
84
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C
96±2.2 km/h
7184% hit
Environment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American
82
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C
94±3.2 km/h
6581% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European
79
/100rank #3
66±1.9°C
86±7.2 km/h
8994% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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Common questions
What's the weather in Tobermory today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Tobermory today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Tobermory today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Tobermory and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Tobermory?
Over the last 30 days, the Env. Canada model has been the most accurate for Tobermory (CheckWeather Score 84/100), ahead of the American at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Tobermory?
July is typically the warmest month in Tobermory, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Tobermory get?
The coldest month in Tobermory is February, when overnight lows average about -8°C.
How much rain does Tobermory get?
Tobermory sees roughly 986 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.
Is Tobermory getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Tobermory, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.8°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
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