Kincardine weather
Loading live data…Clear,much the same tomorrow
Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Kincardine's high today between 13° and 16°, a 2° split. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 17°, with a 2% chance of rain.
Latest for Kincardine: Env. Canada (GEM model): 5° Clear · European (ECMWF): 4° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 4° Clear.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Kincardine weather in numbers
from 30 years of measured normalsKincardine swings 29°C across the year, from 22°C highs in July to -7°C lows in February, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1050 mm of precipitation.
The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Kincardine and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Kincardine hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Kincardine 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitKincardine, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -7°C), with roughly 1050 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Kincardine right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.
Kincardine climate by month
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Kincardine's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Kincardine, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.8°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
Frost nights
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Frost nights vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | −0.9°C | +17 | +2% |
| 1996 | −2.0°C | +22 | −1% |
| 1997 | −1.1°C | +3 | +1% |
| 1998 | +1.6°C | −24 | −3% |
| 1999 | +0.5°C | −7 | +4% |
| 2000 | ±0.0°C | −3 | +1% |
| 2001 | −0.1°C | −7 | −1% |
| 2002 | ±0.0°C | +4 | +4% |
| 2003 | −1.6°C | +13 | −1% |
| 2004 | −0.4°C | −2 | +4% |
| 2005 | +0.5°C | +15 | −3% |
| 2006 | +0.8°C | −24 | +1% |
| 2007 | +0.1°C | +9 | +2% |
| 2008 | −0.5°C | +10 | +2% |
| 2009 | −0.6°C | −2 | −4% |
| 2010 | +0.9°C | −7 | +1% |
| 2011 | −0.1°C | +2 | −1% |
| 2012 | +1.5°C | −32 | +1% |
| 2013 | −0.3°C | +15 | +4% |
| 2014 | −2.0°C | +30 | −1% |
| 2015 | −0.9°C | +7 | −4% |
| 2016 | +1.0°C | −6 | −1% |
| 2017 | +0.4°C | −13 | +2% |
| 2018 | −0.4°C | +19 | −1% |
| 2019 | −1.1°C | +16 | +1% |
| 2020 | +0.6°C | −3 | +1% |
| 2021 | +1.2°C | −9 | −3% |
| 2022 | −0.1°C | +18 | +1% |
| 2023 | +1.0°C | −18 | −6% |
| 2024 | +2.0°C | −36 | −3% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Kincardine, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Kincardine?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.