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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°C

Port Elgin weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Port Elgin today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 18°, with a 2% chance of rain.

15°2°
18°5°
13°6°
10°3°
15°4°
17°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±3°
Env. CanadaGEM model
0°
Clear
Feels -4° · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 96%
EuropeanECMWF
4°
Clear
Feels 1° · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 89%
AmericanNOAA GFS
3°
Clear
Feels 0° · Wind 11 km/h · Humidity 87%

Latest for Port Elgin: Env. Canada (GEM model): 0° Clear · European (ECMWF): 4° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 3° Clear.

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Port Elgin weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Port Elgin swings 29°C across the year, from 22°C highs in July to -7°C lows in February, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1101 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
22°C average high
Coldest month
February
-7°C average low
Wettest month
December
1101 mm a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
7,862
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Port Elgin and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Port Elgin hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Port Elgin 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
15° 2°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
18° 5°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
13° 6°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
10° 3°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
15° 4°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
17° 8°
±3°
Fri
Mostly clear
14° 6°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
19° 8°
±3°
Sun
Light rain
19° 11°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
15° 7°
±3°
Tue
Light snow
8° 3°
models agree
Wed
Heavy drizzle
7° 2°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
10° 5°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
10° 2°
±3°

Port Elgin, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -7°C), with roughly 1101 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Port Elgin right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Port Elgin climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-2°
-6°
Feb
-1°
-7°
Mar
3°
-4°
Apr
9°
1°
May
15°
7°
Jun
19°
12°
Jul
22°
16°
Aug
22°
17°
Sep
19°
13°
Oct
13°
8°
Nov
7°
2°
Dec
1°
-3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Port Elgin has changed since 1995

Port Elgin sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Owen Sound. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Owen Sound page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Port Elgin?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C91±4.6 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
85
/100rank #2
81±1.1°C95±2.3 km/h8290% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
82
/100rank #3
86±0.8°C92±3.8 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree15° to 15°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°16° to 18°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±2°12° to 14°±12%0% to 12% chance
Tue±3°9° to 11°±6%0% to 6% chance
Wed±6°12° to 18°±13%9% to 22% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Port Elgin

today, local time
Sunrise
07:52
Sunset
18:26
Daylight
10h 34m

Common questions

What's the weather in Port Elgin today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Port Elgin today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 18°, with a 2% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Port Elgin today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Port Elgin on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 2% (Env. Canada 0%, European 2%, American 2%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Port Elgin?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Port Elgin (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Port Elgin?
July is typically the warmest month in Port Elgin, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Port Elgin get?
The coldest month in Port Elgin is February, when overnight lows average about -7°C.
How much rain does Port Elgin get?
Port Elgin sees roughly 1101 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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