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CheckWeather USOro Valley
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 4°F

Oro Valley weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 96° in Oro Valley today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 99°, with a 8% chance of rain.

96°76°
99°79°
99°78°
100°82°
98°81°
98°81°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
98°
Partly cloudy
Today 98°·Low 75°·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
96°
Cloudy
Today 96°·Low 76°·Rain 4%
EuropeanECMWF
95°
Cloudy
Today 95°·Low 76°·Rain 8%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Oro Valley and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
96° 76°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
99° 79°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
99° 78°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
100° 82°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
98° 81°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
98° 81°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
92° 78°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
90° 76°
±5°
Sun
Light drizzle
90° 76°
±8°
Mon
Light drizzle
91° 77°
±7°
Tue
Light drizzle
90° 75°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
91° 78°
±11°
Thu
Thunderstorm
90° 73°
models agree
Fri
Thunderstorm
90° 74°
models agree

Oro Valley, AZ is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 103°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 41°F), with roughly 16 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Oro Valley right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Oro Valley climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
59°
41°
Feb
63°
44°
Mar
67°
47°
Apr
81°
55°
May
90°
64°
Jun
99°
74°
Jul
103°
81°
Aug
99°
78°
Sep
97°
74°
Oct
89°
66°
Nov
72°
52°
Dec
69°
49°

Which forecast is most accurate in Oro Valley?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
83
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F94±1.9 mph6581% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
60
/100rank #2
79±2.1°F71±9.0 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°95° to 98°±4%4% to 8% chance
Tomorrow±3°98° to 101°models agree8% to 8% chance
Mon±3°97° to 100°±13%14% to 27% chance
Tue±4°98° to 102°±1%16% to 17% chance
Wed±2°97° to 99°±27%36% to 63% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Oro Valley

today, local time
Sunrise
06:01
Sunset
18:43
Daylight
12h 42m

Common questions

What's the weather in Oro Valley today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Oro Valley today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Oro Valley today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Oro Valley and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Oro Valley?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Oro Valley (CheckWeather Score 83/100), ahead of the American at 60. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Oro Valley?
July is typically the warmest month in Oro Valley, with average highs around 103°F.
How cold does Oro Valley get?
The coldest month in Oro Valley is January, when overnight lows average about 41°F.
How much rain does Oro Valley get?
Oro Valley sees roughly 16 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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