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CheckWeather USTucson
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Tucson weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 97° in Tucson today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 99°, with a 8% chance of rain.

97°74°
99°77°
98°75°
100°80°
99°81°
98°80°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
97°
Partly cloudy
Today 97°·Low 74°·Rain 3%
AmericanNOAA GFS
98°
Cloudy
Today 98°·Low 73°·Rain 3%
EuropeanECMWF
97°
Cloudy
Today 97°·Low 76°·Rain 6%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Tucson and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
97° 74°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
99° 77°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
98° 75°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
100° 80°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
99° 81°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
98° 80°
±7°
Fri
Light drizzle
94° 78°
±6°
Sat
Drizzle
91° 76°
±6°
Sun
Mostly clear
91° 75°
±9°
Mon
Light drizzle
92° 78°
±7°
Tue
Light drizzle
92° 75°
±5°
Wed
Cloudy
94° 79°
±7°
Thu
Drizzle
92° 75°
models agree
Fri
Showers
92° 75°
models agree

Tucson, AZ is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 105°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 39°F), with roughly 14 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Tucson right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Tucson climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
61°
39°
Feb
66°
42°
Mar
70°
46°
Apr
83°
54°
May
92°
64°
Jun
101°
73°
Jul
105°
80°
Aug
100°
77°
Sep
98°
73°
Oct
91°
63°
Nov
74°
49°
Dec
71°
44°

Which forecast is most accurate in Tucson?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F96±1.3 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
60
/100rank #2
78±2.2°F81±6.0 mph2458% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°97° to 98°±3%3% to 6% chance
Tomorrow±1°98° to 99°models agree8% to 8% chance
Mon±1°98° to 99°±16%13% to 29% chance
Tue±4°99° to 103°±3%16% to 19% chance
Wed±3°98° to 101°±17%39% to 56% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Tucson

today, local time
Sunrise
06:01
Sunset
18:42
Daylight
12h 41m

Common questions

What's the weather in Tucson today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Tucson today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Tucson today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Tucson and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Tucson?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Tucson (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the American at 60. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Tucson?
July is typically the warmest month in Tucson, with average highs around 105°F.
How cold does Tucson get?
The coldest month in Tucson is January, when overnight lows average about 39°F.
How much rain does Tucson get?
Tucson sees roughly 14 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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