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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Gilbert weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 77° in Gilbert today. Tomorrow: clear, around 80°, with a 1% chance of rain.

77°57°
80°55°
83°61°
84°62°
86°63°
85°65°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
60°
Clear
Feels 58° · Wind 2 mph · Humidity 68%
AmericanNOAA GFS
57°
Clear
Feels 55° · Wind 3 mph · Humidity 63%
EuropeanECMWF
58°
Clear
Feels 57° · Wind 2 mph · Humidity 72%

Latest for Gilbert: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 60° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 57° Clear · European (ECMWF): 58° Clear.

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Gilbert weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Gilbert…

Gilbert weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Gilbert swings 65°F across the year, from 106°F highs in July to 41°F lows in December, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 9 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 250 days a year at 77°F or above, 194 of them at 86°F or above, 2 frost nights, and rain on 36 days.

Warmest month
July
106°F average high
Coldest month
December
41°F average low
Wettest month
August
9 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and November
Residents
248,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
92/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
250 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
2 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
36 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Gilbert’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Gilbert and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Gilbert hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Gilbert 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
77° 57°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
80° 55°
models agree
Mon
Clear
83° 61°
models agree
Tue
Clear
84° 62°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
86° 63°
±6°
Thu
Light drizzle
85° 65°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
80° 66°
±7°
Sat
Drizzle
73° 64°
±4°
Sun
Drizzle
75° 64°
±13°
Mon
Drizzle
76° 64°
±18°
Tue
Cloudy
80° 64°
±12°
Wed
Showers
79° 63°
±11°
Thu
Cloudy
73° 62°
±13°

Gilbert, Arizona (AZ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 106°F) and coldest in Dec (lows around 41°F), with roughly 9 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Gilbert right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Gilbert climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
65°
43°
Feb
69°
45°
Mar
75°
51°
Apr
85°
54°
May
94°
66°
Jun
103°
73°
Jul
106°
80°
Aug
104°
79°
Sep
99°
72°
Oct
88°
60°
Nov
75°
50°
Dec
65°
41°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Gilbert has changed since 1995

Gilbert sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Phoenix. That square ran 1.6°F warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Phoenix page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Gilbert?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F95±1.6 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
75
/100rank #2
86±1.4°F89±3.5 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°76° to 78°±1%1% to 2% chance
Tomorrow±3°79° to 81°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±1°82° to 83°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°83° to 85°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±6°83° to 88°±1%0% to 1% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Gilbert

today, local time
Sunrise
06:39
Sunset
17:43
Daylight
11h 4m

Common questions

What's the weather in Gilbert today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 77° in Gilbert today. Tomorrow: clear, around 80°, with a 1% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Gilbert today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Gilbert on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 1% (NWS 1%, American 1%, European 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 2%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Gilbert?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Gilbert (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Gilbert?
July is typically the warmest month in Gilbert, with average highs around 106°F.
How cold does Gilbert get?
The coldest month in Gilbert is December, when overnight lows average about 41°F.
How much rain does Gilbert get?
Gilbert sees roughly 9 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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