Phoenix weather
Loading live data…Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 77° in Phoenix today. Tomorrow: clear, around 80°, with a 1% chance of rain.
Latest for Phoenix: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 61° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 62° Clear · European (ECMWF): 60° Clear.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Phoenix weather alerts and warnings
active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisoriesChecking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Phoenix…
Phoenix weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weatherPhoenix swings 67°F across the year, from 106°F highs in July to 39°F lows in December, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 9 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 246 days a year at 77°F or above, 192 of them at 86°F or above, 2 frost nights, and rain on 34 days.
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Phoenix’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Phoenix and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Phoenix in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour
Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Phoenix, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗What are you doing?
Where are you going?
Phoenix hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Phoenix 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitPhoenix, Arizona (AZ). Below we compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Phoenix right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Phoenix's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.
Phoenix weather by month
what to expect in Phoenix through the year, 1991-2020 averagesHere is Phoenix's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °F, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Phoenix by season.
What Phoenix's weather is like through the year
Phoenix runs from warm summers, with July highs near 106°F, to cold winters, when December lows sit around 39°F (a swing of about 67°F across the year). August is usually the wettest month, and Phoenix sees roughly 9 inches of precipitation annually.
Best time to visit Phoenix
The most comfortable time to visit Phoenix is usually January, February, March and November, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 60-78°F range and the heaviest August rain is behind you.
How Phoenix's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Phoenix, 2015-2024 averaged 1.6°F warmer than 1995-2004. 8 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2017.
Days above 95°F
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Days >95°F vs avg | Frost nights vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | −1.1°F | −14 | −5 | −0% |
| 1996 | +0.2°F | +10 | −2 | +6% |
| 1997 | −0.7°F | +5 | +5 | +3% |
| 1998 | −2.9°F | −25 | +2 | +3% |
| 1999 | −0.6°F | −1 | −3 | +6% |
| 2000 | ±0.0°F | +15 | −3 | +3% |
| 2001 | −0.2°F | +11 | +1 | +3% |
| 2002 | ±0.0°F | −1 | +0 | +3% |
| 2003 | +0.3°F | +12 | −2 | +3% |
| 2004 | −0.9°F | +1 | +0 | +3% |
| 2005 | −0.4°F | −4 | −5 | −4% |
| 2006 | −0.6°F | −16 | −1 | −0% |
| 2007 | −0.2°F | −11 | +4 | −0% |
| 2008 | −1.6°F | −15 | +4 | −0% |
| 2009 | −0.4°F | +1 | +0 | −0% |
| 2010 | −1.5°F | −13 | +1 | −0% |
| 2011 | −0.7°F | +10 | +3 | +3% |
| 2012 | +0.9°F | +2 | −5 | −4% |
| 2013 | −0.7°F | −11 | +8 | +3% |
| 2014 | +1.1°F | −5 | −4 | −7% |
| 2015 | +0.5°F | −11 | +3 | −4% |
| 2016 | +1.4°F | −2 | −3 | −0% |
| 2017 | +2.1°F | +6 | −3 | −4% |
| 2018 | +1.2°F | +7 | −3 | −4% |
| 2019 | −0.7°F | −13 | +3 | −0% |
| 2020 | +1.6°F | +32 | −3 | −0% |
| 2021 | +1.1°F | −7 | −5 | −4% |
| 2022 | +0.3°F | +9 | +1 | −0% |
| 2023 | +0.5°F | +15 | +0 | −0% |
| 2024 | +2.0°F | +18 | −2 | −4% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Phoenix, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Phoenix?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Phoenix, scoring 93/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the American at 72. See the full US accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.